北京居民出行行为分析:时间价值和交通需求弹性估算

发布时间：2018-09-18 21:21

【摘要】：基于2010年北京市居民工作出行调研数据和随机参数Logit模型,从微观层面实证分析了影响北京市居民选择出行方式的个人/家庭、交通通达度以及出行(方式)的相关特征等各类因素,并在此基础上着重研究了出行方式的时间价值、时间弹性和价格弹性,为交通政策的评估与建议提供实证资料。实证分析发现,人们对公交、地铁的车内时间价值表现出较高的敏感度,因此节约公交出行时间的交通政策(如建设快速公交、增加地铁的线路和班次等)可能会更有效地调节人们选择公交出行的方式。同时也发现降低公交/地铁的价格可能不足以有效吸引北京开车出行人群转用公交。发展快速公交可能比"低价公交"政策能更有效地吸引人们转用公交地铁等交通工具。
[Abstract]:Based on the data of Beijing residents' work trip survey in 2010 and the random parameter Logit model, this paper empirically analyzes the individuals / families that influence Beijing residents' travel choices at the micro level. On the basis of this, the paper studies the time value, time elasticity and price elasticity of travel mode, and provides empirical data for the evaluation and suggestion of transportation policy. The empirical analysis shows that people have a high sensitivity to the value of time inside the bus and subway, so the transportation policy of saving the travel time of public transportation (such as the construction of bus rapid transit), Increasing subway lines and frequency, etc.) may be more effective in regulating how people choose to travel by bus. It is also found that lowering the price of buses / subways may not be enough to attract Beijing drivers to switch to public transport. The development of bus rapid transit (BRT) may be more effective than low-cost public transport (BRT) policies in attracting people to switch to public transport such as subway.
【作者单位】：中国人民大学经济学院;北京大学环境科学与工程学院;北京大学国家发展研究院;中央财经大学中国公共财政与政策研究院;
【基金】：中国人民大学科学研究基金项目(中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助)(13XNF031)
【分类号】：U491.1

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