大型活动突发事件交通应急疏散模型构建与算法研究

发布时间：2018-10-09 17:24

【摘要】：目前我国突发公共事件频繁发生，这将在很长一段时间内对城市管理者和城市居民生活带来考验，突发事件的危害和影响越来越受到社会大众的重视。合理准确的应急疏散需求预测和有效的应急疏散方案实施，是使疏散时间最小，最大限度减少被困人员生命财产损失的重要保障。其中，路径选择和交通流分配是应急疏散方案的核心内容。本文以大型活动突发事件下的交通应急疏散为研究对象，通过参考相关文献，以及进行实地数据调查，分析了应急疏散交通需求和交通特性，建立了疏散路径的车辆行程时间模型，编写了行程时间模型的应用程序，利用最小费用最大流理论建立了疏散路径选择的网络模型，并以通化市为对象进行了实证分析。本文共分七章，主要内容如下：第一章，介绍了论文的研究背景及意义，对国内外交通应急疏散的研究现状进行了概述。确定了论文主要研究内容和难点，制定了论文技术路线。第二章，确定了突发事件影响范围，给出了避难场所容量的计算方法，对了活动参与者分类方式进行分析，提出了疏散需求总量及疏散车辆需求的预测方法，对疏散道路交通特性进行了介绍。第三章，对大型活动的定义、分类以及特征进行了总结，并结合大型活动背景介绍了突发事件的定义及分类情况。分析了大型活动应急疏散特征，阐述了应急交通疏散的原则及组织管理措施，制定了针对不同危害等级的应急疏散方案。第四章，根据基于道路的通行能力、交叉口延误、ITS设施等影响因素的路阻函数，，建立了疏散路径的车辆行驶时间模型。使用C语言编写了行程时间模型的应用程序，通过运行程序，计算出了各条备选的疏散路径上的疏散时间。第五章，利用最小费用最大流理论建立了疏散路径选择的网络模型。将应急疏散路径选择问题转变成最小费用最大流的数学规划问题。提出了模型的求解算法。对模型进行了实证分析，确定了应急疏散方案，并验证了模型的有效性。第六章归纳本文完成的内容、新意之处及有待进一步研究的问题。通过研究，提出了适应我国国情的基于公共交通的大型活动交通应急疏散方案，丰富了应急疏散的理论和方法体系。有助于根据应急疏散的特点，制定更为合理和有效的交通管理政策，为城市应急疏散交通规划与管理提供决策依据。
[Abstract]:At present, public emergencies occur frequently in our country, which will bring the test to city administrators and urban residents' life for a long time. The harm and influence of unexpected events are paid more and more attention by the public. Reasonable and accurate emergency evacuation demand prediction and effective emergency evacuation plan are the important guarantee to minimize evacuation time and minimize the loss of life and property of trapped persons. Among them, route selection and traffic flow assignment are the core contents of emergency evacuation scheme. In this paper, traffic emergency evacuation under the emergency of large-scale activities as the research object, through reference to relevant literature and field data investigation, the traffic demand and traffic characteristics of emergency evacuation are analyzed. The vehicle travel time model of evacuation route is established, the application program of travel time model is compiled, the network model of evacuation path selection is established by using the minimum cost maximum flow theory, and the empirical analysis is carried out in Tonghua City. This paper is divided into seven chapters. The main contents are as follows: the first chapter introduces the research background and significance of the paper, and summarizes the research status of traffic emergency evacuation at home and abroad. The main research contents and difficulties are determined, and the technical route of the thesis is established. In the second chapter, the influence range of emergency is determined, the method of calculating the capacity of shelter is given, the classification method of activity participant is analyzed, and the method of forecasting the total amount of evacuation demand and the demand of evacuation vehicle is put forward. The traffic characteristics of evacuation road are introduced. In the third chapter, the definition, classification and characteristics of large-scale activities are summarized, and the definition and classification of emergencies are introduced in combination with the background of large-scale activities. This paper analyzes the characteristics of emergency evacuation for large-scale activities, expounds the principles and organizational management measures of emergency traffic evacuation, and formulates emergency evacuation schemes for different hazard levels. In chapter 4, according to the road resistance function based on the road capacity, intersection delay and its facilities, the vehicle travel time model of the evacuation path is established. The application program of travel time model is written in C language, and the evacuation time on each alternative evacuation path is calculated by running program. In chapter 5, the network model of evacuation path selection is established by using the minimum cost maximum flow theory. The problem of emergency evacuation path selection is transformed into a mathematical programming problem of minimum cost and maximum flow. An algorithm for solving the model is proposed. The model is analyzed empirically, the emergency evacuation scheme is determined, and the validity of the model is verified. The sixth chapter summarizes the content of this paper, new ideas and problems to be further studied. Based on the research, the scheme of emergency evacuation based on public transportation is put forward, which enriches the theory and method system of emergency evacuation. It is helpful to formulate more reasonable and effective traffic management policies according to the characteristics of emergency evacuation and to provide decision basis for urban emergency evacuation traffic planning and management.
【学位授予单位】：吉林大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：U491

【参考文献】