城市道路与机动车演化关系的建模与分析

发布时间：2018-10-11 09:27

【摘要】：随着经济的快速发展,城市机动车保有量持续增加,一方面拉动了内需,加快了城市化与机动化进程；另一方面也给有限的城市道路带来了日益严重的交通负担,进而制约了城市经济的发展和人们生活水平的进一步提高。如何很好地深入揭示城市道路与机动车的互演化机理,从而使得整个城市交通系统既能满足人们的出行需求,也能尽可能的减少政府的经济投资以及土地资源的浪费成为了现在城市交通研究领域中的热点。对城市机动车保有量和城市道路关系的研究历来是交通领域研究的热点,很多学者从不同角度研究了二者之间的关系,取得了一些有意义的成果。但是,这些研究大部分是基于城市道路和机动车现状,缺乏从互演化的角度刻画二者之间的内在相互关系。鉴于此,本论文在已有研究基础上,基于Logistic方程,建立了城市道路与机动车的互演化模型,并详细分析了二者之间的演化关系,具体的学术贡献如下。从不同角度建立了无约束条件下的城市道路与机动车的互演化模型、基于交通承载力的城市道路与机动车的互演化模型以及基于不同交通方式的城市道路与机动车的互演化模型,并运用非线性方程稳定性原理和混沌理论对模型进行了稳定性分析。在MATLAB7.1环境下模拟了城市道路与交通的互演化过程,分析了演化过程中二者相互影响、相互作用的反馈关系。最后,以北京、东京、上海、广州、天津、南京等五个国际性大都市为实例,验证了本论文所建立的互演化模型。实证分析结果表明,本论文所提出的模型可以较好的模拟城市道路与机动车之间的演化规律。研究结论将为城市规划或者城市系统改造提供科学依据。
[Abstract]:With the rapid development of economy, the number of urban motor vehicles has been increasing continuously. On the one hand, it has stimulated domestic demand, accelerated the process of urbanization and motorization; on the other hand, it has also brought an increasingly serious traffic burden to the limited urban roads. Then it restricts the development of urban economy and the further improvement of people's living standard. How to reveal the mechanism of mutual evolution between urban roads and motor vehicles, so that the whole urban transportation system can not only meet the travel needs of people, Also can reduce the government's economic investment and waste of land resources as far as possible has become a hot spot in the field of urban transport research. The research on the relationship between urban motor vehicle ownership and urban road has always been a hot topic in the field of transportation. Many scholars have studied the relationship between the two from different angles and achieved some meaningful results. However, most of these studies are based on the current situation of urban roads and motor vehicles, and lack of mutual evolution to describe the internal relationship between the two. In view of this, based on the existing research and Logistic equation, this paper establishes a mutual evolution model of urban roads and motor vehicles, and analyzes the evolutionary relationship between them in detail. The specific academic contributions are as follows. The mutual evolution model of urban roads and motor vehicles under unconstrained conditions is established from different angles. The mutual evolution model of urban roads and motor vehicles based on traffic carrying capacity, and the mutual evolution model of urban roads and motor vehicles based on different traffic modes. The stability of the model is analyzed by using the stability principle of nonlinear equations and chaos theory. The mutual evolution of urban road and traffic is simulated in MATLAB7.1 environment, and the feedback relationship between them is analyzed. Finally, taking Beijing, Tokyo, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Tianjin and Nanjing as examples, the mutual evolution model established in this paper is verified. The empirical results show that the model proposed in this paper can well simulate the evolution between urban roads and motor vehicles. The conclusions will provide scientific basis for urban planning or urban system reconstruction.
【学位授予单位】：北京交通大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：U491.2

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