基于引力模型的省域市际公路客运班线运力规模研究
发布时间：2018-10-18 12:12
【摘要】：班线运力资源配置是政府管理部门对整个班线运输市场进行管理、调整、监察、规划研究、政策制定的基点。现有公路客运管理体系在班线运力规模评价、新班线运力投放、班线运力动态调整等方面缺乏科学、有效、合理的依据，阻碍公路班线客运发展，影响运力资源的有效配置以及经济效益、社会效益的最大化。鉴于此，论文以公路客运班线运力规模为切入点展开探索性研究。 基于运输需求预测的班线运力配置是目前的主流方法，但是由于需求的波动性、时间不均衡性、对流性等特征导致在班线运力进行研究时存在明显弊端。论文在研究班线客运市场需求与供给内在关系的基础上，引入引力模型作为核心模型，构建客运班线运力规模模型。 在陕西省客运市场充分调研的基础上，利用K—均值聚类分析得到基于需求特征的班线分类，即市—市班线、西安—县班线、市—县班线等；给定样本班线遴选标准，获得样本班线标定模型，得到各类型班线运力生成规律。 对运力规模模型进行实践应用，得到计算运力的合理范围（7/8Wx，，7/6Ws）、最大合理上限（4/3W上限）和最小合理下限（3/4W下限），在此基础上给定班线运力分析评价标准，并对陕西省市际班线运力投放进行评价，为后续优化提供科学、合理的依据。
[Abstract]:The allocation of shift transportation capacity resources is the basic point for the government management departments to manage, adjust, supervise, plan and study the whole shift transportation market, and make policies. The existing highway passenger transport management system lacks scientific, effective and reasonable basis in evaluating the capacity of the shift line, putting in the capacity of the new class line, and dynamically adjusting the capacity of the shift line, which hinders the development of the passenger transport on the highway line. It affects the efficient allocation of capacity resources and the maximization of economic and social benefits. In view of this, the paper takes the capacity scale of highway passenger transport line as the starting point to carry out exploratory research. The routing capacity allocation based on transportation demand forecasting is the mainstream method at present, but due to the fluctuation of demand, time imbalance, convection and other characteristics, there are obvious drawbacks in the study of line capacity. Based on the study of the internal relationship between the demand and supply of passenger transport, the gravity model is introduced as the core model to construct the capacity scale model of passenger line. On the basis of full investigation of passenger transport market in Shaanxi Province, the classification of shift lines based on demand characteristics is obtained by using K-means clustering analysis, namely, city to city line, Xi'an to county line, city to county line, and so on, and the selection criteria of sample class line are given. The calibration model of sample shift line is obtained, and the generating law of capacity of each type of shift line is obtained. Through the practical application of the model of capacity scale, the reasonable range of calculation capacity (7 / 8 WxX / 7 / 6 Ws), the maximum reasonable upper limit (4 / 3W upper limit) and the minimum reasonable lower limit (3 / 4W lower limit) are obtained. On this basis, the criteria for analyzing and evaluating the capacity of shift lines are given. The evaluation of intercity shift line capacity in Shaanxi Province provides a scientific and reasonable basis for further optimization.
【学位授予单位】：长安大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：U492.4
本文编号：2279092
[Abstract]:The allocation of shift transportation capacity resources is the basic point for the government management departments to manage, adjust, supervise, plan and study the whole shift transportation market, and make policies. The existing highway passenger transport management system lacks scientific, effective and reasonable basis in evaluating the capacity of the shift line, putting in the capacity of the new class line, and dynamically adjusting the capacity of the shift line, which hinders the development of the passenger transport on the highway line. It affects the efficient allocation of capacity resources and the maximization of economic and social benefits. In view of this, the paper takes the capacity scale of highway passenger transport line as the starting point to carry out exploratory research. The routing capacity allocation based on transportation demand forecasting is the mainstream method at present, but due to the fluctuation of demand, time imbalance, convection and other characteristics, there are obvious drawbacks in the study of line capacity. Based on the study of the internal relationship between the demand and supply of passenger transport, the gravity model is introduced as the core model to construct the capacity scale model of passenger line. On the basis of full investigation of passenger transport market in Shaanxi Province, the classification of shift lines based on demand characteristics is obtained by using K-means clustering analysis, namely, city to city line, Xi'an to county line, city to county line, and so on, and the selection criteria of sample class line are given. The calibration model of sample shift line is obtained, and the generating law of capacity of each type of shift line is obtained. Through the practical application of the model of capacity scale, the reasonable range of calculation capacity (7 / 8 WxX / 7 / 6 Ws), the maximum reasonable upper limit (4 / 3W upper limit) and the minimum reasonable lower limit (3 / 4W lower limit) are obtained. On this basis, the criteria for analyzing and evaluating the capacity of shift lines are given. The evaluation of intercity shift line capacity in Shaanxi Province provides a scientific and reasonable basis for further optimization.
【学位授予单位】：长安大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：U492.4
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