基于SP调查的城市通勤者行程时间可靠性价值研究

发布时间：2018-10-24 22:59

【摘要】：随着我国经济的快速发展,城市交通出行需求不断增加,早晚高峰交通拥堵日益严重,行程时间可靠性较低,城市交通管理部门不断寻求各种改善交通的措施。为了合理科学评估交通管理方案、交通设施建设的效果,需要对城市交通出行成本进行更全面合理地分析,而传统的行程时间价值研究已不能全面反映城市交通出行成本,更需要对不同交通方式及方案下的通勤者时间价值及行程时间可靠性价值进行量化研究。本文立足城市通勤者,使用SP (stated preference)调查法开展出行者在公共交通方式及小汽车方式下的行程时间可靠性价值研究。首先,本文在综述国内外行程时间可靠性价值研究的基础上,分析通勤出行特性,确定了以城市通勤者为研究对象,分析了行程时间可靠性价值因素,并分析选取了城市通勤者行程时间可靠性价值基础模型。随后,确定了出行者个人属性、出行时间约束、出行特征属性的水平值,采用均匀设计法对公共交通方式和小汽车方式卜的SP调查问卷进行设计,开展调研获取了通勤者出行意愿数据,并进行数据的转换和校核。其次,分析“出行者收入水平”和“出行者面临的时间约束”两个新增变量对出行者效用方程的影响,对公共交通方式和小汽车方式的基础行程时间可靠性模型进行了改进,并结合SP调查数据进行模型检验,确定两种交通方式下的最优模型形式。最后,根据改进后的模型,分别对公共交通方式和小汽车方式下的行程时间可靠性价值进行求解,并从价值类别、价值数值、收入水平、时间约束、交通方式等角度对结果进行了分析与对比。
[Abstract]:With the rapid development of economy in our country, the demand for urban transportation is increasing, the traffic congestion is becoming more and more serious in the morning and evening, the reliability of travel time is low, and the urban traffic management department is constantly looking for various measures to improve the traffic. In order to evaluate the traffic management scheme scientifically and the effect of traffic facilities construction, it is necessary to make a more comprehensive and reasonable analysis of urban transportation travel cost, but the traditional study of travel time value can not fully reflect the urban transportation travel cost. It is also necessary to quantify the commuter time value and travel time reliability value under different traffic modes and schemes. Based on urban commuters, this paper uses SP (stated preference) survey method to study the reliability value of travel time in public transportation and car mode. First of all, on the basis of summarizing the research on the reliability value of travel time at home and abroad, this paper analyzes the characteristics of commuting trip, determines the city commuters as the research object, and analyzes the value factors of travel time reliability. The reliability value model of urban commuter's travel time is analyzed and selected. Then, the level value of individual attribute, travel time constraint, travel characteristic attribute is determined, and the SP questionnaire of public transportation mode and car mode is designed by uniform design method. The data of commuter travel intention were obtained, and the data were converted and checked. Secondly, the paper analyzes the influence of two new variables, "traveler income level" and "traveler's time constraint", on the traveler's utility equation, and improves the reliability model of the basic travel time of public transport mode and car mode. Combined with the SP survey data, the optimal model form is determined under the two traffic modes. Finally, according to the improved model, the reliability value of travel time in public transport mode and car mode is solved, and the value category, value, income level, time constraint, The results are analyzed and compared from the point of view of traffic mode.
【学位授予单位】：北京交通大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：U491.1

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