基于层次分析法和模糊数学对桥梁运营风险评估

发布时间：2018-10-26 20:59

【摘要】：自从我国迈入21世纪以来,国民经济得到了显著的提升,现代化交通工程的建设事业不断发展,桥梁建设水平也提升了很高的档次。正由于桥梁建设的难度不断增加,新技术不断应用,跨度也不断增大,随之而来的一系列桥梁问题浮出台面,其中对既有桥梁的风险评估也越来越受到专家、公众的关注。桥梁作为交通的咽喉,大量既有桥梁随着自然环境的冲刷以及日益增长的交通量、运输荷载的作用,其安全性受到不同程度的影响。对已建成的桥梁,特别是大跨度桥梁进行风险评估,是作为对如何对桥梁进行经济合理的维修加固的理论基础,对于保证桥梁在运营期间的安全性有着不可低估的作用。面对桥梁事故的日益频发以及与之息息相关的经济及安全问题,需要结合我国实际状况,对桥梁不同时段的风险做出较为科学的评价,才能制定合理的应对策略,采取更为有效的措施,提高桥梁建设和运营期间的安全性。层次分析法在模糊概念的评估中有着比较广泛的应用,本文着重研究层次分析法作为评估桥梁运营期间的风险方法的可行性。首先分析层次分析法、模糊数学法、灰色理论法,通过比较各个理论的优势,将这三个方法结合,形成一个可以用于分析模糊信息的方法。将该方法应用于桥梁运营期间的风险评估中,所得到的评估结果有一定的正确性、科学性,能够较为准确的评定桥梁运营期间所处的风险等级,再针对危险系数较高的风险因子,采取一些列措施,对桥梁进行加固,以保证桥梁在运营中的安全性。本文以新疆果子沟大桥为工程实例,运用层次分析法,模糊数学以及灰色理论,建立风险评估模型,对该桥所处的运营风险等级做出评价,对比实际情况,验证该评估方法的有效性和实用性。通过对新疆果子沟大桥进行风险评估建模分析,最终能够得出各个风险因子对桥梁运营期间安全性的影响程度,再针对危险因素较大的风险因子提出一系列加固方案,而该评估方法也为加固方案提供了一定的理论依据,并且该评估方法也可以应用于未来的类似风险评估,具有一定实用意义。
[Abstract]:Since China entered the 21st century, the national economy has been greatly improved, the construction of modern traffic engineering has been continuously developed, and the level of bridge construction has also been raised to a very high level. Because of the increasing difficulty of bridge construction, the application of new technology and the increasing span, a series of bridge problems have emerged, among which the risk assessment of existing bridges has been paid more and more attention by experts and the public. Bridge as the throat of traffic, a large number of existing bridges with the erosion of the natural environment and increasing traffic volume, the role of transport load, its safety is affected by varying degrees. The risk assessment of the bridges built, especially the long-span bridges, is the theoretical basis of how to maintain and strengthen the bridges economically and reasonably, and plays an important role in ensuring the safety of the bridges during operation. In the face of the increasingly frequent occurrence of bridge accidents and the economic and safety problems closely related to them, it is necessary to make a more scientific evaluation of the bridge risks in different periods of time in order to formulate a reasonable coping strategy in the light of the actual situation in our country. Take more effective measures to improve the safety of bridge construction and operation. The Analytic hierarchy process (AHP) is widely used in the evaluation of fuzzy concepts. This paper focuses on the feasibility of AHP as a risk assessment method during bridge operation. Firstly, the analytic hierarchy process (AHP), fuzzy mathematics method and grey theory method are analyzed. By comparing the advantages of each theory, the three methods are combined to form a method that can be used to analyze fuzzy information. Applying this method to the risk assessment of bridge operation period, the results obtained are correct and scientific, and can accurately evaluate the risk grade during the bridge operation. Aiming at the risk factors with high risk coefficient, some measures are taken to strengthen the bridges to ensure the safety of the bridges in operation. Taking the Shuigou Bridge in Xinjiang as an engineering example, using AHP, fuzzy mathematics and grey theory, a risk assessment model is established to evaluate the operational risk grade of the bridge and compare the actual situation. The effectiveness and practicability of the evaluation method are verified. By modeling and analyzing the risk assessment of Shuigou Bridge in Xinjiang, we can get the influence of each risk factor on the safety of the bridge during operation, and then put forward a series of reinforcement schemes for the risk factors with larger risk factors. The evaluation method also provides a theoretical basis for the reinforcement scheme, and it can also be applied to similar risk assessment in the future, which has a certain practical significance.
【学位授予单位】：昆明理工大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：U447

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