城市快速路事故条件下通行能力的仿真研究
发布时间：2018-11-09 13:38
【摘要】：城市快速路是城市交通的动脉,在其上发生的交通事故将造成路段甚至路网范围内的交通拥堵。利用有效的手段准确合理地测算事故条件下路段的通行能力,能定量地指导事故路段上游的交通分流,避免形成较严重的交通拥堵,使路网的通行能力得到充分利用。现有通行能力的参数估算法和非参数估算法在应用方面存在较大弊端,因此本文开展了城市快速路事故条件下通行能力的仿真研究。 首先,本文总结了国内外学者在通行能力及微观交通仿真领域的研究成果,着重阐述了占道条件下通行能力的研究现状及微观仿真的参数校正这一仿真核心步骤的研究现状。基于对研究现状的总结,选取了VISSIM作为本文的仿真软件,并确定采用遗传算法进行参数校正。 其次,本文对快速路事故路段进行了界定,分析了事故路段驾驶员和车辆的行为特性,得出在事故条件下车辆的跟驰和换道行为与正常状态下的车辆行为不同。根据对事故条件下路段通行能力影响因素的分析,建立了事故条件下通行能力的概念模型,并将概念模型的参数转换至相应的仿真模型参数中进行表达,由此设计了事故条件下通行能力的仿真测算框架,探讨了仿真测算框架的核心之一,即如何模拟事故场景,并利用C++设计了事故条件下VISSIM驾驶行为参数的动态改变程序。 再次,本文对仿真测算框架的核心之二,即仿真参数的校正进行了研究。确定以行程时间作为快速路事故路段仿真模型参数校正的指标,利用单因素置换法进行了仿真参数的敏感性分析,确定了对行程时间敏感的参数集及各参数的取值范围,并在此基础上利用MATLAB设计了参数校正程序。 最后,本文选取典型的快速路单向三车道及四车道追尾事故进行了实例研究。通过验证,两个事故案例通行能力的仿真测算结果与实际调查之相对误差均小于5%,表明本文所建立的仿真测算框架有效。通过对不同事故条件的仿真研究,得出了事故条件下,快速路单向三车道及四车道不同事故占道数目及占道长度下的通行能力及折减系数。分析得出占道长度与事故路段的通行能力呈一次线性负相关；且随占道数目的增长,通行能力降低的梯度减缓。应用三车道案例的仿真模型,分析了不同事故时长下的交通疏散量,基于交通疏散量的时间分布规律,定性地讨论了在事故路段上游进行分流的注意事项。
[Abstract]:Urban expressway is the artery of urban traffic. Using effective means to accurately and reasonably calculate the capacity of road sections under accident conditions can quantitatively guide the traffic diversion upstream of the accident sections, avoid the formation of more serious traffic congestion, and make full use of the capacity of the road network. The existing parameter estimation method and non-parameter estimation method have some disadvantages in application, so the simulation study of capacity under the condition of urban expressway accident is carried out in this paper. First of all, this paper summarizes the research results of domestic and foreign scholars in the field of traffic capacity and microscopic traffic simulation, focusing on the current situation of research on traffic capacity under the condition of road occupation and the research status of parameter correction of micro-simulation, which is the core step of simulation. Based on the summary of the research status, VISSIM is selected as the simulation software of this paper, and genetic algorithm is used to calibrate the parameters. Secondly, this paper defines the road section of the expressway accident, analyzes the behavior characteristics of the driver and the vehicle in the accident section, and concludes that the following and changing behavior of the vehicle under the condition of the accident is different from that of the vehicle in the normal state. Based on the analysis of the influencing factors of traffic capacity under accident condition, the conceptual model of traffic capacity under accident condition is established, and the parameters of the conceptual model are transformed into the corresponding simulation model parameters to be expressed. In this paper, the simulation calculation framework of traffic capacity under accident condition is designed, and one of the core of simulation calculation framework is discussed, that is, how to simulate the accident scene, and the dynamic change program of driving behavior parameters of VISSIM under accident condition is designed by using C #. Thirdly, this paper studies the emulation parameter correction, which is the second core of the simulation measurement framework. The travel time is used as the parameter correction index of the simulation model of the expressway accident section. The sensitivity analysis of the simulation parameters is carried out by using the single factor replacement method, and the parameter set sensitive to the travel time and the value range of each parameter are determined. On this basis, the program of parameter correction is designed by using MATLAB. Finally, the typical three-lane and four-lane rear-end accidents of expressway are studied. It is verified that the relative error between the simulation results of traffic capacity of two accident cases and the actual investigation is less than 5, which indicates that the simulation calculation framework established in this paper is effective. Through the simulation study of different accident conditions, the capacity and reduction coefficient of expressway under different accident number and length of three lane and four lane in one way are obtained. It is concluded that the length of the occupied road has a linear negative correlation with the traffic capacity of the accident section, and the gradient of the decrease of the traffic capacity decreases with the increase of the number of the roads occupied. The simulation model of three-lane case is used to analyze the traffic evacuation amount under different accident time. Based on the time distribution of traffic evacuation amount, the attention points for diverting traffic upstream of the accident section are discussed qualitatively.
【学位授予单位】：北京交通大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：U491.114
本文编号：2320564
[Abstract]:Urban expressway is the artery of urban traffic. Using effective means to accurately and reasonably calculate the capacity of road sections under accident conditions can quantitatively guide the traffic diversion upstream of the accident sections, avoid the formation of more serious traffic congestion, and make full use of the capacity of the road network. The existing parameter estimation method and non-parameter estimation method have some disadvantages in application, so the simulation study of capacity under the condition of urban expressway accident is carried out in this paper. First of all, this paper summarizes the research results of domestic and foreign scholars in the field of traffic capacity and microscopic traffic simulation, focusing on the current situation of research on traffic capacity under the condition of road occupation and the research status of parameter correction of micro-simulation, which is the core step of simulation. Based on the summary of the research status, VISSIM is selected as the simulation software of this paper, and genetic algorithm is used to calibrate the parameters. Secondly, this paper defines the road section of the expressway accident, analyzes the behavior characteristics of the driver and the vehicle in the accident section, and concludes that the following and changing behavior of the vehicle under the condition of the accident is different from that of the vehicle in the normal state. Based on the analysis of the influencing factors of traffic capacity under accident condition, the conceptual model of traffic capacity under accident condition is established, and the parameters of the conceptual model are transformed into the corresponding simulation model parameters to be expressed. In this paper, the simulation calculation framework of traffic capacity under accident condition is designed, and one of the core of simulation calculation framework is discussed, that is, how to simulate the accident scene, and the dynamic change program of driving behavior parameters of VISSIM under accident condition is designed by using C #. Thirdly, this paper studies the emulation parameter correction, which is the second core of the simulation measurement framework. The travel time is used as the parameter correction index of the simulation model of the expressway accident section. The sensitivity analysis of the simulation parameters is carried out by using the single factor replacement method, and the parameter set sensitive to the travel time and the value range of each parameter are determined. On this basis, the program of parameter correction is designed by using MATLAB. Finally, the typical three-lane and four-lane rear-end accidents of expressway are studied. It is verified that the relative error between the simulation results of traffic capacity of two accident cases and the actual investigation is less than 5, which indicates that the simulation calculation framework established in this paper is effective. Through the simulation study of different accident conditions, the capacity and reduction coefficient of expressway under different accident number and length of three lane and four lane in one way are obtained. It is concluded that the length of the occupied road has a linear negative correlation with the traffic capacity of the accident section, and the gradient of the decrease of the traffic capacity decreases with the increase of the number of the roads occupied. The simulation model of three-lane case is used to analyze the traffic evacuation amount under different accident time. Based on the time distribution of traffic evacuation amount, the attention points for diverting traffic upstream of the accident section are discussed qualitatively.
【学位授予单位】：北京交通大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：U491.114
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