公交通勤者行程时间可靠性价值测度研究
发布时间：2018-11-13 14:28
【摘要】：行程时间可靠性越来越成为城市交通规划与管理的重要评价指标，出行者如何评价行程时间可靠性的价值，行程时间可靠性又对出行行为产生怎样的影响，这些问题近年来逐渐受到国内外学者的重视。研究出行者测度行程时间可靠性价值的规律有助于定量分析道路交通系统可靠性对出行决策的影响，为科学评价交通项目效益和制定有针对性的交通需求管理策略提供支持。本文系统总结测度行程时间可靠性价值的国内外研究成果，全面剖析多种可靠性价值测度模型的应用和不同调查数据获取方式的利弊，为合理测度行程时间可靠性价值提供完整的解决方案。同时设计基于出行者预置信息的SP问卷调查程序，以天津市区早高峰时段部分通勤者为研究对象，，采用直接和间接两种测度方法，测度公交方式通勤者行程时间可靠性价值，应用混合Logit模型标定参数。结果不仅验证了公交通勤者行程时间可靠性价值的存在性，同时发现了通勤者测度可靠性价值不仅考虑行程时间波动幅度本身，而是更加注重时间波动可能引起的迟到延误成本或早到机会成本。研究给出了调查样本行程时间可靠性支付意愿的分布情况及不同社会经济属性通勤者的偏好特征，为估算交通建设项目中行程时间可靠性改善带来的效益和制定交通需求管理政策提供参考。
[Abstract]:Travel time reliability has become an important evaluation index of urban traffic planning and management. How to evaluate the value of travel time reliability and how does travel time reliability affect travel behavior? These problems have been paid more and more attention by scholars at home and abroad in recent years. The study of travelers' reliability value of travel time is helpful to the quantitative analysis of the impact of road traffic system reliability on travel decision-making and provides support for the scientific evaluation of traffic project benefits and the formulation of targeted traffic demand management strategies. This paper systematically summarizes the domestic and foreign research results of measuring the reliability value of travel time, analyzes the advantages and disadvantages of various reliability value measurement models and the advantages and disadvantages of different survey data acquisition methods. It provides a complete solution for measuring the reliability value of travel time reasonably. At the same time, the SP questionnaire program based on the preset information is designed to measure the reliability value of commuter's travel time by using direct and indirect measurement methods, taking some commuters in the early rush hours of Tianjin city as the research object. The mixed Logit model is used to calibrate the parameters. The results not only verify the existence of travel time reliability value of bus commuters, but also find that the reliability value of commuter measurement not only takes into account the range of travel time fluctuation. Instead, pay more attention to the cost of late delay or early arrival opportunity due to time fluctuations. The distribution of willingness to pay for reliability of travel time and preference characteristics of commuters with different socioeconomic attributes were given. It provides a reference for estimating the benefit of improving the reliability of travel time in traffic construction projects and formulating traffic demand management policies.
【学位授予单位】：上海交通大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：U491
本文编号：2329434
[Abstract]:Travel time reliability has become an important evaluation index of urban traffic planning and management. How to evaluate the value of travel time reliability and how does travel time reliability affect travel behavior? These problems have been paid more and more attention by scholars at home and abroad in recent years. The study of travelers' reliability value of travel time is helpful to the quantitative analysis of the impact of road traffic system reliability on travel decision-making and provides support for the scientific evaluation of traffic project benefits and the formulation of targeted traffic demand management strategies. This paper systematically summarizes the domestic and foreign research results of measuring the reliability value of travel time, analyzes the advantages and disadvantages of various reliability value measurement models and the advantages and disadvantages of different survey data acquisition methods. It provides a complete solution for measuring the reliability value of travel time reasonably. At the same time, the SP questionnaire program based on the preset information is designed to measure the reliability value of commuter's travel time by using direct and indirect measurement methods, taking some commuters in the early rush hours of Tianjin city as the research object. The mixed Logit model is used to calibrate the parameters. The results not only verify the existence of travel time reliability value of bus commuters, but also find that the reliability value of commuter measurement not only takes into account the range of travel time fluctuation. Instead, pay more attention to the cost of late delay or early arrival opportunity due to time fluctuations. The distribution of willingness to pay for reliability of travel time and preference characteristics of commuters with different socioeconomic attributes were given. It provides a reference for estimating the benefit of improving the reliability of travel time in traffic construction projects and formulating traffic demand management policies.
【学位授予单位】：上海交通大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：U491
【参考文献】
相关期刊论文 前5条
1 高爱霞;陈艳艳;任福田;;基于蒙特卡罗模拟方法的快速路运行时间可靠度研究[J];公路交通科技;2006年11期
2 赵胜川;王喜文;姚荣涵;张羽祥;;基于Mixed Logit模型的私家车通勤出行时间价值[J];吉林大学学报(工学版);2010年02期
3 姜乙甲;于雷;陈琨;余柳;滕怀龙;;基于可靠性的奥运会开幕式交通管理与控制措施评价[J];交通与计算机;2007年04期
4 余艳春;邵春福;郭钰愫;熊志华;;基于实时数据的路网行程时间可靠度模型研究[J];现代交通技术;2006年02期
5 许良;高自友;;基于出行时间可靠性的城市交通网络设计[J];系统仿真学报;2008年02期
相关博士学位论文 前3条
1 段鹏;离散选择模型理论与应用研究[D];南开大学;2010年
2 赵贝;居民出行方式选择与公交优先政策协同研究[D];吉林大学;2011年
3 赵丹;综合交通信息下通勤出行链重构机理研究[D];北京交通大学;2013年
本文编号：2329434
本文链接：https://www.wllwen.com/kejilunwen/jiaotonggongchenglunwen/2329434.html
