邓州至豫鄂省界高速公路交通量预测优化研究

发布时间：2018-11-25 18:46

【摘要】：随着我国社会经济的高速发展，高速公路建设取得了巨大的进步。高速公路规划作为高速公路建设的前期工作，为其科学发展提供了重要支撑。而其中交通量预测又是交通规划的重要环节，直接影响着规划的科学性。因此，对交通量预测进行研究有着十分重要的现实意义。首先，本文对交通量研究的国内外发展历程进行了介绍，分析了当前存在的问题，明确了研究方向。其次，在对交通量变化规律和影响因素研究的基础上，针对传统四阶段法适用性不强、忽略全局的弊端进行了改进。最后，依托邓州至豫鄂省界高速公路项目，对交通量预测进行了实例研究。在交通调查与分析方面，利用“Foxpro软件包”和“串并联法则”对原始数据进行校核，并对综合交通运输进行分析；在社会经济预测方面，利用二次多项式法和三次平滑指数法进行经济预测，并进行了定性定量分析；在交通发生方面，利用未来弹性系数法计算了集中发生交通量；在交通分布方面，利用弗雷特法、重力模型和logit模型分别对正常交通量、诱增交通量和转移进行预测，并汇总得到了未来特征年OD表；在交通分配方面，采用均衡模型对相关道路进行交通量分配，并对互通立交转向交通流量进行了模拟，最后对未来交通量进行了分析。在交通量预测整个实例研究过程中利用TransCAD软件并结合优化方法进行，，提高了预测的科学性。本文结合相关理论对传统四阶段法进行了优化，并结合邓州至豫鄂省界高速公路进行交通量预测进行了实例论证，为以后同类工程提供一定参考。
[Abstract]:With the rapid development of China's social economy, highway construction has made great progress. Highway planning, as a preliminary work of highway construction, provides important support for its scientific development. Among them, traffic volume prediction is an important link in traffic planning, which directly affects the scientific nature of the planning. Therefore, the study of traffic volume prediction has a very important practical significance. Firstly, this paper introduces the development of traffic volume research at home and abroad, analyzes the existing problems, and clarifies the research direction. Secondly, on the basis of the research on the law of traffic volume change and the influencing factors, the traditional four-stage method is improved because of its weak applicability and neglecting the whole situation. Finally, based on the highway project from Dengzhou to Henan and Hubei province, a case study on traffic volume prediction is carried out. In the aspect of traffic investigation and analysis, we use "Foxpro software package" and "series-parallel rule" to check the original data and analyze the comprehensive transportation. In the aspect of social economic prediction, the quadratic polynomial method and cubic smoothing index method are used to carry out economic prediction, and qualitative and quantitative analysis are carried out, and in terms of traffic occurrence, the volume of concentrated traffic is calculated by using the method of elasticity coefficient in the future. In terms of traffic distribution, Fret method, gravity model and logit model are used to predict the normal traffic volume, induced traffic volume and traffic transfer, and the OD table for the future characteristic year is obtained. In the aspect of traffic allocation, the traffic volume of relevant roads is allocated by using equilibrium model, and the traffic flow of interchanges is simulated. Finally, the traffic volume in the future is analyzed. In the whole research process of traffic volume prediction, the TransCAD software and the optimization method are used to improve the scientific nature of the prediction. In this paper, the traditional four-stage method is optimized based on the relevant theory, and the traffic volume prediction of the highway from Dengzhou to Henan and Hubei province is demonstrated by an example, which provides a certain reference for the similar projects in the future.
【学位授予单位】：辽宁科技大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：U491.14

【参考文献】