城市公共交通合理发展水平研究

发布时间：2018-12-07 08:24

【摘要】：随着城市化进程的不断加快和私家车保有量的不断增长,交通需求的急剧膨胀导致交通压力大增,交通拥堵、停车困难和环境污染等问题日益突出,优先发展公共交通成为解决这些问题的必由之路。在发展“公交都市”的大背景下,许多城市制定了公交规划,大力发展公共交通；然而,受到各种因素的影响,许多城市在目标年公交的实际发展水平远达不到公交规划方案中制定的发展目标。为确定城市公交合理的发展目标,给各城市的公交规划提供依据,本文依托安徽省交通运输厅科技计划项目《城市公共交通评价指标体系研究》,对城市公交的合理发展水平及其评价展开研究。首先,根据目的性、科学性、系统性和可操作性等原则,采用专家会议法,从运营能力、服务能力和发展能力三个方面的备选指标中选取评价指标,建立城市公交合理发展水平评价指标体系,并对指标进行了量化分析。其次,在分析城市公共交通现状和传统的“四阶段”交通需求预测模型的基础上,对城市公交发展的影响因素进行了分析；分别采用趋势拟合法和残差修正的GM(1,1)模型,对城市公交发展水平的指标进行预测,探讨城市公共交通发展水平的预测方法。再次,制定了评价流程,采用结构熵权法计算指标权重,引入多属性决策理论,运用基于改进TOPSIS法的灰色关联度评价模型对城市公交合理发展水平进行纵向和横向的评价。其中,纵向的评价是基于预测的结果,结合城市公交的发展现状和规划目标,对城市公交的合理发展水平进行综合评价。横向的评价是针对同类别的不同城市,考虑城市之间的差异性,对城市公交发展与城市发展间的协调性进行评价。最后,以安徽省部分城市为例,借助MATLAB和EXCEL等工具,进行模型的验证和实例应用分析。结果表明,研究的成果实用性较强,对城市公共交通合理发展目标的确定具有一定的指导意义。
[Abstract]:With the acceleration of urbanization and the increasing number of private cars, the rapid expansion of traffic demand leads to traffic pressure, traffic congestion, parking difficulties and environmental pollution. Giving priority to the development of public transport is the only way to solve these problems. Under the background of the development of "public transportation city", many cities have formulated public transport plans and vigorously developed public transport. However, under the influence of various factors, the actual development level of public transport in many cities in the target year is far from the development goal set in the public transport planning plan. In order to determine the reasonable development goal of urban public transport and provide the basis for the public transport planning of each city, this paper relies on the scientific and technological plan project of Anhui Provincial Transportation Department < Research on the Evaluation Index system of Urban Public Transport]. The reasonable development level of urban public transport and its evaluation are studied. First of all, according to the principles of purpose, science, systematicness and maneuverability, the expert meeting method is used to select the evaluation index from three aspects of operation ability, service ability and development ability. The evaluation index system of reasonable development level of urban public transport is established, and the quantitative analysis of the index is carried out. Secondly, on the basis of analyzing the present situation of urban public transport and the traditional "four-stage" traffic demand forecasting model, the paper analyzes the influencing factors of urban public transport development. The trend fitting method and the residual modified GM (1 / 1) model are used to predict the development level of urban public transport and the prediction method of the development level of urban public transportation is discussed. Thirdly, the evaluation flow is established, the index weight is calculated by using the structure entropy weight method, the multi-attribute decision theory is introduced, and the grey relational degree evaluation model based on the improved TOPSIS method is used to evaluate the reasonable development level of urban public transport vertically and horizontally. Among them, the longitudinal evaluation is based on the prediction results, combined with the development status of urban public transport and planning objectives, the reasonable level of urban public transport development is comprehensively evaluated. The horizontal evaluation is to evaluate the coordination between urban public transport development and urban development considering the differences between different cities. Finally, taking some cities in Anhui Province as an example, the model verification and application analysis are carried out by means of MATLAB and EXCEL. The results show that the results of the study are practical and have a certain guiding significance for the determination of the reasonable development goal of urban public transport.
【学位授予单位】：合肥工业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：U12

【参考文献】