中国城市车辆密度对劳动生产率影响的实证研究
发布时间：2018-12-21 21:43
【摘要】：空间集聚是现代经济活动的一个特征。城市车辆密度随着经济活动的集聚而增加。在达到路网设计能力以前，交通密度的增长会降低道路建设平均成本、提高经济活动和人们交往的频率、有利于提高要素生产率和溢出效应，因此有利于提高城市集聚经济。可是，一旦城市车辆密度超出城市道路设计通过能力，增长的车辆非但自身难以达到正常速度，而且会降低其他车辆和出行者的速度，产生集聚非经济。从劳动生产率视角研究最佳车辆密度既有助于识别城市效率的影响途径，也可为城市交通规划和建设提供重要依据。 本文根据交通拥堵的外部性原理构建了交通成本函数，分别分析了城市厂商和居民的最优化问题，进而设置了城市经济一般均衡计量模型。本文利用我国268个地级及以上城市2003-2011年面板数据估计该模型，获得一系列统计上显著的分析结果。（1）中国城市的车辆密度与劳动生产率之间呈倒U型关系，大城市平均最佳车辆密度（2028辆/km2）低于小城市最佳密度（2849辆/km2），估计结果既表现出车辆行驶距离和时间随城市规模的扩大而增加、大城市车辆平均所需路面大于小城市的一般规律，也反映了大城市道路同时服务于邻近地区入城车辆以及政府用车和军用车辆在大城市比较集中的现象。（2）我国城市交通拥堵现象日趋严重，从2003年10个城市的交通拥堵发展到2011年130个城市出现交通拥堵，同期这些城市拥堵造成的生产率损失从260亿元上升到6600亿元，其中6385亿元源自77个出现拥堵的百万人口以上的大城市。（3）城市道路桥梁建设有效地提高了道路通行能力和最佳车辆密度，如果道路资本存量从均值上升10%，城市道路通行能力增长17%，其中大城市平均最佳车辆密度从2028辆/平方公里增长到2378辆/平方公里，小城市的最佳密度从2849辆/平方公里增长到3339辆/平方公里。城市道路桥梁投资明显降低了拥堵损失，如果在生产率高且拥堵严重的大城市增加路桥投资，其收益远高于成本，，相反，由于小城市生产率较低且拥堵程度较低，路桥投资的收益不足以弥补小城市路桥投资的成本。
[Abstract]:Spatial agglomeration is a characteristic of modern economic activities. The density of urban vehicles increases with the agglomeration of economic activities. Before reaching the capacity of road network design, the increase of traffic density will reduce the average cost of road construction, increase the frequency of economic activities and people's communication, and help to increase factor productivity and spillover effect, so it will help to improve the urban agglomeration economy. However, once the density of urban vehicles exceeds the capacity of urban road design, the growth of vehicles will not only be difficult to achieve normal speed, but also will reduce the speed of other vehicles and travelers, resulting in the accumulation of non-economic. The study of optimal vehicle density from the perspective of labor productivity can not only help to identify the influence ways of urban efficiency, but also provide an important basis for urban traffic planning and construction. Based on the externality principle of traffic congestion, this paper constructs the traffic cost function, analyzes the optimization problems of the urban manufacturers and residents, and sets up the general equilibrium econometric model of urban economy. In this paper, the panel data of 268 cities in China from 2003 to 2011 are used to estimate the model, and a series of statistically significant results are obtained. (1) the relationship between vehicle density and labor productivity in Chinese cities is inversely U-shaped. The average optimum vehicle density (2028 vehicles / km2) in large cities is lower than that in small cities (2849 vehicles / km2). The general law that the average road needs of large cities are greater than that of small cities, It also reflects the phenomenon that the roads in big cities serve the vehicles entering the cities in the neighboring areas at the same time, as well as the concentration of government vehicles and military vehicles in large cities. (2) the phenomenon of urban traffic congestion in China is becoming more and more serious. From traffic jams in 10 cities in 2003 to 130 in 2011, the productivity loss from congestion in these cities rose from 26 billion yuan to 660 billion yuan in the same period. Of this amount, 638.5 billion yuan originates from 77 large cities with a congested population of more than one million people. (3) Urban road and bridge construction effectively improves road capacity and optimal vehicle density, if the stock of road capital increases by 10 percent from the average. The average optimum vehicle density in large cities has increased from 2028 to 2378 vehicles per square kilometer, and the optimum density in small cities has increased from 2849 to 3339 vehicles per square kilometer. Investment in urban roads and bridges significantly reduces congestion losses. If you increase investment in roads and bridges in large cities with high productivity and high congestion, the benefits are much higher than the costs, whereas smaller cities are less productive and congested. The return on road and bridge investment is not enough to cover the cost of road and bridge investment in small cities.
【学位授予单位】：湖南大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F572;F249.2
本文编号：2389507
[Abstract]:Spatial agglomeration is a characteristic of modern economic activities. The density of urban vehicles increases with the agglomeration of economic activities. Before reaching the capacity of road network design, the increase of traffic density will reduce the average cost of road construction, increase the frequency of economic activities and people's communication, and help to increase factor productivity and spillover effect, so it will help to improve the urban agglomeration economy. However, once the density of urban vehicles exceeds the capacity of urban road design, the growth of vehicles will not only be difficult to achieve normal speed, but also will reduce the speed of other vehicles and travelers, resulting in the accumulation of non-economic. The study of optimal vehicle density from the perspective of labor productivity can not only help to identify the influence ways of urban efficiency, but also provide an important basis for urban traffic planning and construction. Based on the externality principle of traffic congestion, this paper constructs the traffic cost function, analyzes the optimization problems of the urban manufacturers and residents, and sets up the general equilibrium econometric model of urban economy. In this paper, the panel data of 268 cities in China from 2003 to 2011 are used to estimate the model, and a series of statistically significant results are obtained. (1) the relationship between vehicle density and labor productivity in Chinese cities is inversely U-shaped. The average optimum vehicle density (2028 vehicles / km2) in large cities is lower than that in small cities (2849 vehicles / km2). The general law that the average road needs of large cities are greater than that of small cities, It also reflects the phenomenon that the roads in big cities serve the vehicles entering the cities in the neighboring areas at the same time, as well as the concentration of government vehicles and military vehicles in large cities. (2) the phenomenon of urban traffic congestion in China is becoming more and more serious. From traffic jams in 10 cities in 2003 to 130 in 2011, the productivity loss from congestion in these cities rose from 26 billion yuan to 660 billion yuan in the same period. Of this amount, 638.5 billion yuan originates from 77 large cities with a congested population of more than one million people. (3) Urban road and bridge construction effectively improves road capacity and optimal vehicle density, if the stock of road capital increases by 10 percent from the average. The average optimum vehicle density in large cities has increased from 2028 to 2378 vehicles per square kilometer, and the optimum density in small cities has increased from 2849 to 3339 vehicles per square kilometer. Investment in urban roads and bridges significantly reduces congestion losses. If you increase investment in roads and bridges in large cities with high productivity and high congestion, the benefits are much higher than the costs, whereas smaller cities are less productive and congested. The return on road and bridge investment is not enough to cover the cost of road and bridge investment in small cities.
【学位授予单位】：湖南大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F572;F249.2
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