小汽车尾号限行的博弈分析

发布时间：2018-12-31 18:30

【摘要】：近年来，我国的小汽车保有量迅速增长，使得城市空气环境污染日趋严重，同时带来许多交通拥堵问题，政府提出了小汽车尾号限行政策。该政策实施后，道路上的汽车运行数量明显减少，道路拥堵得到很大程度的改善，车辆的运行速度明显提高。但是此种措施在缓解交通拥堵的同时对环境、社会经济、交通功能和资源利用等方面也产生了一定影响。尾号限行实施后，一定程度上缓解了城市道路的交通压力，也产生了一系列影响，比如改变居民出行行为和出行成本、刺激居民汽车消费、改变交通管制成本和物流运输成本等等，直接影响居民的日常生活，因而对尾号限行政策的分析评价变得十分重要。针对尾号限行这一交通需求管理模式，，通过分析国内外各城市尾号限行实施现状，主要从环境、社会经济、资源利用、交通功能等方面，分别阐述尾号限行产生的各方面的影响。在此基础上，对尾号限行各方面的影响进行定量和定性的综合分析。环境方面：限行改善空气质量、降低噪声污染、减少大气污染物的排放，评价指标有空气污染指数、一氧化碳浓度、氮氧化物浓度、噪声分贝、颗粒物质浓度和汽车振动强度；社会经济方面：限行刺激公众的汽车消费，改变居民出行方式，减少日均时间延误，降低交通管制成本和交通事故经济成本，评价指标有居民平均出行距离、居民出行成本、主干道人均行程时间变化率、万车死亡率等；资源利用方面：释放道路资源，降低燃油消耗和水质污染，节约能源，评价指标有人、车/时空消耗、人均空间资源占用率、油耗率等。而在交通方面，实施尾号限行会给交通环境带来很大程度的改善，降低主干路的日均车流量，缓解道路交通压力，节约出行时间。分别从交通出行需求改变、交通出行方式结构改变、交通出行分布改变、时空均衡分布四个角度评价其影响，并在上述四个子系统影响分析的基础上，建立子系统指标体系，评价指标有：车/公里总量、主要道路车辆平均速度、主要道路里程拥挤率、停车供需变化量、主要公交线路高峰满载率、关键交叉口服务水平指标等。综合考虑各方面影响的评价指标，根据“囚徒困境”和“公共地悲剧”理论，分析城市交通中的“公共地悲剧”问题，建立完全信息静态博弈模型，运用精炼贝叶斯纳什均衡理论对其产生的各方面的影响进行全面系统性分析，在总体达到最优的情况下，寻求合理的尾号限行改善策略。
[Abstract]:In recent years, the number of cars in our country has been increasing rapidly, which makes the air pollution in cities become more and more serious. At the same time, it brings a lot of traffic congestion problems. The government has put forward the policy of car tail number restriction. After the implementation of the policy, the number of vehicles running on the road is obviously reduced, the road congestion has been greatly improved, and the speed of the vehicle has been obviously increased. However, this kind of measures has a certain impact on environment, social economy, traffic function and resource utilization while alleviating traffic congestion. After the implementation of the trailing restrictions, traffic pressure on urban roads has been alleviated to a certain extent, and a series of effects have also been produced, such as changing residents' travel behavior and travel costs, and stimulating residents' car consumption. The change of traffic control cost and logistics transportation cost has a direct impact on the daily life of residents, so it is very important to analyze and evaluate the trailing number restriction policy. In view of the traffic demand management mode of tail-number restriction, by analyzing the current situation of the implementation of tail-number restriction in domestic and foreign cities, it is mainly from the aspects of environment, social economy, resource utilization, traffic function, etc. The influence of the end number limit on each aspect is expounded respectively. On this basis, quantitative and qualitative analysis of the impact of the tail number limit on all aspects of the line is carried out. Environmental aspects: limit to improve air quality, reduce noise pollution, reduce emissions of atmospheric pollutants, the evaluation indicators are air pollution index, carbon monoxide concentration, nitrogen oxide concentration, noise decibel, particulate matter concentration and vehicle vibration intensity; Social and economic aspects: restrictions stimulate public car consumption, change the way residents travel, reduce daily average time delay, reduce the cost of traffic control and economic costs of traffic accidents, the evaluation indicators include the average travel distance of residents, residents travel costs, The change rate of per capita travel time, the death rate of ten thousand vehicles, etc.; In terms of resource utilization: releasing road resources, reducing fuel consumption and water pollution, saving energy, evaluating indexes, vehicle / space consumption, per capita space resource occupancy, fuel consumption rate and so on. In the traffic aspect, the implementation of the tail number restriction will bring a great deal of improvement to the traffic environment, reduce the average daily traffic flow of the trunk road, ease the road traffic pressure, and save travel time. The impact is evaluated from four aspects: the change of traffic demand, the change of traffic mode structure, the change of traffic travel distribution, and the distribution of space-time equilibrium. Based on the analysis of the impact of the above four subsystems, the subsystem index system is established. The evaluation indexes include the total vehicle / km, the average speed of the main road vehicle, the main road mileage congestion rate, the change of parking supply and demand, the peak load rate of the main bus line, the service level index of the key intersection, etc. According to the theory of "prisoner's dilemma" and "tragedy of public land", this paper analyzes the problem of "tragedy of public land" in urban traffic, and establishes a static game model of complete information. Based on the theory of refined Bayesian Nash equilibrium, this paper makes a comprehensive and systematic analysis of the effects of the refined Bayesian Nash equilibrium theory, and seeks for a reasonable strategy to improve the trailing number limit under the condition that the whole is optimal.
【学位授予单位】：兰州交通大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：U491

【参考文献】