效用模型在船舶综合安全评估中的应用研究

发布时间：2019-01-19 15:39

【摘要】：综合安全评估(FSA,Formal Safety Assessment)是专门针对船舶的安全管理方法,其特点是不但对风险进行评估,而且利用成本效益分析(CEA,Cost Effectiveness Analysis)对风险控制方案进行选择决策。为提高FSA方案决策的合理性,将效用理论应用于FSA的CEA分析。具体来说,首先利用损失效用函数定义某类事故风险的效用,用以表达决策者对该风险的厌恶程度。同时,利用期望效用公式,将船舶系统各类事故风险的效用综合为一个总效用值,称为综合风险效用模型。利用该模型提出基于效用的CEA方法,即在选择风险控制方案时,将CEA中的风险减小量代换为与之效用相等的确定性效益值,使方案决策能考虑决策者主观态度的影响。最后,在LNG船的FSA案例中使用了新方法,并与传统方法的结果进行对比,进一步证明了新方法的合理性与必要性。
[Abstract]:Integrated safety assessment (FSA,Formal Safety Assessment) is a special method for ship safety management, which is characterized by not only risk assessment, but also cost-benefit analysis (CEA,Cost Effectiveness Analysis). In order to improve the rationality of FSA scheme decision, the utility theory is applied to the CEA analysis of FSA. Specifically, the utility of a certain type of accident risk is defined by the loss utility function, which is used to express the decision maker's aversion to the risk. At the same time, by using the expected utility formula, the utility of various accident risks in ship system is synthesized into a total utility value, which is called the comprehensive risk utility model. By using this model, a utility-based CEA method is proposed, in which the risk reduction in the CEA is replaced by the deterministic benefit equal to its utility when the risk control scheme is selected, so that the subjective attitude of the decision makers can be taken into account in the scheme decision. Finally, the new method is used in the FSA case of LNG ship, and compared with the results of the traditional method, which further proves the rationality and necessity of the new method.
【作者单位】：上海交通大学海洋工程国家重点实验室;青岛理工大学山东省城市灾变预防与控制工程技术研究中心;
【分类号】：U698

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