高速公路交通系统脆性激发评估研究

发布时间：2019-01-30 15:07

【摘要】：近年来，由于交通突发事件造成高速公路拥堵甚至连环事故、级联失效的报道屡见不鲜。高速公路系统级联失效导致的大范围失效对区域出行者出行产生较大影响。脆性理论作为复杂系统的一个新兴方向，其基本理论能够很好的契合高速公路系统的这种特性。因此，，对于高速公路此脆性的研究很有必要。论文运用脆性理论，研究高速公路交通系统脆性本质及被激发条件，探究高速公路系统面对突发事件的应变能力。本文首先研究脆性理论在高速公路系统中应用的可行性，通过对复杂系统内外界环境的分析，探究高速公路交通系统脆性的基本特点，并进一步分析系统产生脆性的本质原因及系统脆性被激发的条件。系统受到内外界环境的干扰即脆性因子的干扰进而破坏引发系统脆性，这是系统脆性被激发的客观外因。影响系统脆性被激发的因素多种多样，如恶劣天气条件、道路质量条件、交通事故导致封道等的影响。本文基于Dematel方法建立系统脆性因子的识别模型，从而识别并分析高速公路交通系统的脆性因子。系统脆性被激发的前提条件是脆性源受到内外界环境的干扰出现故障，而系统脆性被激发的本质原因是系统达到自组织临界态，对于临界状态的判别对于高速公路交通系统脆性研究是必要的。运用Vissim软件考虑在系统受到主脆性因子干扰条件下，探寻子系统单元脆性被激发的临界状态，即脆性源受到脆性因子影响后所能承受的临界通行能力。系统脆性源被干扰导致失效是系统脆性被激发的前提条件，因此对于系统脆性源的评估和分析至关重要。本文借鉴级联失效方法的思想，提出高速公路交通系统脆性源评估指标及评估方法，并以黑龙江省高速路网为实例进行脆性源评估。
[Abstract]:In recent years, due to traffic emergencies caused by highway congestion or even serial accidents, cascading failure reports are common. The large scale failure caused by cascade failure of expressway system has great influence on regional travelers. Brittleness theory as a new direction of complex systems, its basic theory can well accord with the characteristics of highway system. Therefore, it is necessary to study the brittleness of expressway. Based on the theory of brittleness, the paper studies the essence of brittleness of expressway traffic system and its exciting condition, and probes into the ability of expressway system to cope with unexpected events. This paper first studies the feasibility of the application of brittleness theory in expressway system. By analyzing the internal and external environment of complex system, this paper explores the basic characteristics of expressway traffic system brittleness. Furthermore, the essential causes of brittleness and the conditions under which the brittleness of the system is excited are analyzed. The system is disturbed by the internal and external environment, that is, the brittleness factor, which leads to the system brittleness, which is the objective external cause of the system brittleness being excited. There are a variety of factors affecting system brittleness, such as bad weather conditions, road quality conditions and road closure caused by traffic accidents. In this paper, the identification model of system brittleness factor is established based on Dematel method, and the brittleness factor of expressway traffic system is identified and analyzed. The prerequisite of system brittleness excitation is that the brittleness source is disturbed by internal and external environment and the essential reason of system brittleness excitation is that the system achieves self-organizing critical state. It is necessary to study the brittleness of expressway traffic system by judging the critical state. Under the condition that the system is disturbed by the main brittleness factor, Vissim software is used to explore the critical state of the brittleness excited by the sub-system unit, that is, the critical capacity of the brittleness source under the influence of the brittleness factor. The failure caused by the disturbance of the system brittleness source is the precondition for the system brittleness to be excited, so it is very important for the evaluation and analysis of the system brittleness source. Based on the idea of cascade failure method, this paper puts forward the evaluation index and method of brittle source of expressway traffic system, and takes Heilongjiang Provincial Highway Network as an example to evaluate the brittle source.
【学位授予单位】：哈尔滨工业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：U491

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