大跨径公路斜拉桥施工安全风险预警系统研究

发布时间：2019-03-05 18:21

【摘要】：大跨径公路斜拉桥施工系统复杂的技术经济特点决定了在其施工中的不确定性和风险性，并且其施工安全受技术、管理、环境等多方面的因素影响，耦合作用下的施工安全风险造成的损失及影响已严重制约大跨径斜拉桥施工安全目标的实现，甚至发生灾难性风险事件；进行有效的风险预警管理将很大程度上降低大跨径斜拉桥施工安全风险。但是目前大跨径斜拉桥施工安全风险预警管理体系研究和应用还相对薄弱，大跨径斜拉桥施工过程极具风险性，，此现状与要求进行全面全过程风险预警管理的现实需要不相适应。因此全面系统地研究大跨径斜拉桥风险分析与预警的关键技术，形成和完善大跨径斜拉桥施工安全风险预警管理理论，对于促进大跨径斜拉桥风险预警管理、提高管理水平和管理效果具有重要理论意义与实践价值。本文以大跨径斜拉桥施工安全控制全过程为背景，紧密结合其施工安全风险问题，完成了以下几方面的研究工作：首先，本文结合大跨径斜拉桥施工全过程安全风险特殊性，从风险因素、风险事件、风险损失等风险要素及风险链进行了综合系统的分析研究，建立了大跨径斜拉桥基础、索塔、上部结构三大关键部位的施工安全风险空间。其次，基于大跨径斜拉桥施工安全风险空间、风险辨识和风险估计分别从人的安全行为、物的安全状态、施工技术安全性、施工组织管理安全性、施工环境安全性五个方面分析并建立了大跨径斜拉桥施工安全风险预警指标体系，并以安全度的思想采用专家确定法判断大跨径斜拉桥的施工安全风险警限。再次，基于风险分析-综合-有针对地再分析的辩证思想，通过分析预警指标体系中各指标之间的相互影响，判断其两两间相对优势度，并通过定性定量相结合的方式划分风险预警指标预警等级，建立了一级和二级大跨径斜拉桥施工安全风险预警模糊网络层次结构模型，此模型综合考虑了元素内部和外部依存关系，不仅功能强大，而且与实际状态更符合。最后，针对大跨径斜拉桥施工全过程安全风险问题，建立了大跨径斜拉桥施工安全风险预警系统，并且详细设计了知识库、模型库、数据库、预警系统等要素，应用该系统可以方便、快速地进行大跨径斜拉桥施工全过程的安全风险辨识、估计、评价、决策和预警管理，为有效控制风险提供依据。本文结合科研项目《重庆丰都长江二桥施工安全风险分析与控制研究》及交通部基础科研项目（编号：2005319814030）《交通项目建设的全过程风险分析与控制研究》来完成。
[Abstract]:The complicated technical and economic characteristics of the construction system of long-span highway cable-stayed bridge determine the uncertainty and risk in its construction, and its construction safety is influenced by many factors such as technology, management, environment and so on. The loss and influence caused by the construction safety risk under the coupling action have seriously restricted the realization of the construction safety goal of the long-span cable-stayed bridge, and even occurred catastrophic risk events. Effective risk early-warning management will greatly reduce the construction safety risk of long-span cable-stayed bridges. But at present, the research and application of long-span cable-stayed bridge construction safety risk early warning management system is still relatively weak, and the construction process of long-span cable-stayed bridge is extremely risky. This situation does not fit in with the requirement of comprehensive risk early warning management in the whole process. Therefore, the key technology of risk analysis and early warning of long-span cable-stayed bridge is studied comprehensively and systematically, and the theory of construction safety risk early-warning management of long-span cable-stayed bridge is formed and perfected, which can promote the risk early-warning management of long-span cable-stayed bridge. It is of great theoretical and practical value to improve the level and effect of management. Taking the whole process of construction safety control of long-span cable-stayed bridge as the background, and combining closely with the construction safety risk problem, this paper completes the following research work: first of all, According to the particularity of safety risk during the construction of long-span cable-stayed bridge, this paper makes a comprehensive and systematic analysis on risk factors and risk chain, such as risk factor, risk event, risk loss and so on, and establishes the foundation and tower of long-span cable-stayed bridge. The construction safety risk space of the three key parts of the superstructure. Secondly, based on the construction safety risk space of long-span cable-stayed bridge, risk identification and risk estimation are based on the human safety behavior, the safety state of objects, the safety of construction technology, the safety of construction organization and management, respectively. The construction safety index system of long-span cable-stayed bridge is analyzed and established in five aspects of construction environment safety, and the safety risk warning limit of long-span cable-stayed bridge is judged by expert determination method based on the idea of safety degree. Thirdly, based on the dialectical thought of risk analysis-synthesis-aiming at ground re-analysis, by analyzing the mutual influence of each index in the early warning index system, the relative advantage degree of two pairs is judged. Through the combination of qualitative and quantitative methods, the risk early warning index early warning grade is divided, and the fuzzy network hierarchical structure model of construction safety risk early warning for first and second stage long span cable stayed bridges is established. This model considers both internal and external dependencies of elements, which is not only powerful, but also more consistent with the actual state. Finally, aiming at the safety risk problem in the construction process of long-span cable-stayed bridge, an early warning system for construction safety risk of long-span cable-stayed bridge is established, and the knowledge base, model base, database, early warning system and other elements are designed in detail. With this system, the safety risk identification, estimation, evaluation, decision-making and early-warning management of long-span cable-stayed bridge construction process can be carried out conveniently and quickly, which can provide the basis for effective risk control. This paper combines the research project "Research on Construction Safety risk Analysis and Control of the second Yangtze River Bridge in Fengdu, Chongqing" and the basic Scientific Research Project of the Ministry of Communications (No. 2005319814030) "Research on the whole process risk Analysis and Control of Traffic Project Construction".
【学位授予单位】：重庆交通大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：U448.27;U445.1

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