城市突发事件下应急交通分配研究

发布时间：2019-03-25 10:40

【摘要】：近年来，由自然因素、人为因素及社会因素引发的城市突发事件频繁发生，城市道路交通系统遇到了前所未有的挑战。要在城市突发事件下保障人员生命及财产安全，城市路网的合理维护与控制管理变得至关重要。事件爆发后，，道路交通状况随之发生骤变，交通系统特征变化、交通流量波动、道路设施毁坏及交通信息缺失等问题无不冲击着政府或组织的决策判断，甚至危及公共安全。同时，由于信息的高度缺失性，很难在短时间内准确把握灾害信息并提供有效的应急决策及疏散救援措施。围绕合理应对交通突变这一问题，国内外首先开展的是关于应急交通管理的研究，对于定量分析研究还处在发展阶段，论文深入研究应急交通分配相关问题，提出建立基于城市突发事件下交通影响等级划分的应急交通分配模型。首先以城市突发事件为背景，根据城市突发事件性质，对道路交通影响进行评价，建立了城市突发事件应急交通影响等级判定体系。确定影响等级为城市突发事件下道路交通阻抗函数提供定量分析的依据。其次，通过拟合不同影响等级下的城市道路阻抗函数模型，为应急动态交通分配提供路阻函数计算公式，保证了城市突发事件下道路出行时间计算的有效性。最后结合系统最优原则，运用动态交通分配模型，进行城市突发事件下的应急交通分配模型建立，从而达到城市突发事件下道路使用权的合理分配及应急疏散救援的最终目标。最后，对某城市突发事件下的应急交通影响等级进行了案例判定，并利用仿真软件对动态交通分配进行了仿真研究。通过对仿真结果的分析，证明了参数修正后的模型应用于应急交通分配是有效的。
[Abstract]:In recent years, urban emergencies caused by natural factors, human factors and social factors have occurred frequently, and the urban road transportation system has encountered an unprecedented challenge. It is very important to ensure the safety of life and property of the personnel and the reasonable maintenance and control of the urban road network in the event of the urban emergency. After the incident, the traffic situation of the road has changed, the characteristics of the traffic system, the fluctuation of the traffic flow, the destruction of the road facilities and the lack of traffic information, etc., all have the impact on the decision-making of the government or the organization, and even the public safety. At the same time, due to the high loss of information, it is difficult to accurately grasp the disaster information in a short time and provide effective emergency decision-making and evacuation rescue measures. In order to deal with the problem of traffic abrupt change, the research on the emergency traffic management is carried out at home and abroad, and the research of the quantitative analysis is still in the development stage. In this paper, an emergency traffic distribution model based on the traffic impact level of urban emergencies is put forward First, based on the urban emergency, according to the nature of the urban incident, the influence of the road traffic is evaluated, and the impact level of the emergency traffic of the urban emergency is established. Determination of the Influence Level to the Quantitative Analysis of the Road Traffic Impedance Function under the Urban Emergency Secondly, by fitting the model of the urban road impedance function under different influence levels, the formula of the road resistance function is provided for the emergency dynamic traffic distribution, and the calculation of the travel time of the road under the emergency of the city is guaranteed. Finally, according to the optimal principle of the system, the dynamic traffic assignment model is applied to establish the emergency traffic distribution model under the urban emergency, so as to achieve the reasonable distribution of the road use right under the urban emergency and the most emergency evacuation rescue. Finally, the case decision is made to the emergency traffic impact level in a certain city, and the dynamic traffic assignment is simulated by the simulation software. Through the analysis of the simulation results, it is proved that the model after the parameter modification is applied to the emergency traffic distribution
【学位授予单位】：石家庄铁道大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：U491

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