基于可靠度理论的城市路网脆弱性评估方法研究

发布时间：2019-05-06 18:37

【摘要】：近年来，随着自然灾害、恶劣天气以及重大交通事故等异常事件的频繁发生，给城市道路交通运输网络的交通承载力和交通运行状况带来了极大的挑战。城市的路网结构是城市的主体骨架同时也是城市运行的动脉，当路网中某一路段单元遭到自然条件或人为破坏时，会使路网的通行能力降低，因此将会对路网产生一定程度的影响，从而进一步对人们的生产等活动造成巨大损失。一般情况下，，交通运输网络脆弱性是指当路网遭受到一定概率且产生严重后果的事件破坏时，导致路网整体服务水平下降的敏感程度。由此可见，路网脆弱性研究对优化城市路网结构以及提升城市道路服务水平具有重要的意义。在此基础上，本文的主要研究内容如下：在总结前人有关路网脆弱性研究的基础上，首先明确了路网脆弱性的定义，即：路网的脆弱性是指路网脆弱单元的失效概率与其失效后对整体路网失效影响程度的综合作用的结果。在此基础上，结合行程时间可靠度与连通可靠度的概念构建基于可靠度理论的路段单元失效概率模型；其次，以路段加权连接度、路段介数、路段饱和度为指标，并结合各个路段单元的失效概率，综合筛选出所研究区域的城市路网中的脆弱路段单元；最后，分别删除路网中的脆弱路段单元，将网络效率、出行效率、出行成本作为脆弱路段单元删除后对路网性能影响的量化评价指标，同时结合脆弱路段单元的失效概率，最终得到路网的脆弱强度判定结果，从而有效地对所研究区域城市道路交通运输网络的脆弱性进行科学判定。本文在前人的基础上确定了路网脆弱性概念，通过本文所采取的路网脆弱性判定方法能够有效地克服以往单一评价方法所带来的弊端，同时根据本文所提出识别路网中脆弱路段的方法能够科学地筛选出脆弱路段单元，对路网结构特性能够明确定位，从而对路网的规划与管理以及提升城市道路服务能力具有重要意义。
[Abstract]:In recent years, with the frequent occurrence of abnormal events such as natural disasters, bad weather and major traffic accidents, it has brought great challenges to the traffic carrying capacity and traffic operation of urban road transportation network. The structure of urban road network is not only the main skeleton of the city, but also the artery of urban operation. When a certain section of the road network is destroyed by natural conditions or man-made damage, the capacity of the road network will be reduced. Therefore, it will have a certain degree of impact on the road network, and further cause great losses to people's production and other activities. Generally speaking, the vulnerability of transportation network is the sensitive degree that leads to the decline of the overall service level of the road network when the road network suffers a certain probability and has a serious consequence of the destruction of the event. It can be seen that the study of road network vulnerability is of great significance for optimizing the structure of urban road network and improving the level of urban road service. On this basis, the main research contents of this paper are as follows: on the basis of summarizing the previous researches on road network vulnerability, the definition of road network vulnerability is defined. That is to say, the vulnerability of road network is the result of the comprehensive effect of the failure probability of the fragile elements of the road network and the degree of its failure on the overall network failure. On this basis, based on the concept of travel time reliability and connectivity reliability, the failure probability model of link element based on reliability theory is constructed. Secondly, taking the weighted connectivity, the number of road sections and the saturation of road sections as the index, combined with the failure probability of each section unit, the vulnerable section units in the urban road network of the studied area are comprehensively screened out. Finally, the fragile section unit in the road network is deleted, and the network efficiency and travel cost are taken as the quantitative evaluation index of the impact on the performance of the road network after the deletion of the fragile road section unit, and the failure probability of the fragile road section unit is combined at the same time. Finally, the fragile strength of the road network is determined, and the fragility of the urban road transportation network in the studied area is determined scientifically. In this paper, the concept of road network vulnerability is defined on the basis of predecessors. Through the road network vulnerability determination method adopted in this paper, the disadvantages brought by the previous single evaluation method can be effectively overcome. At the same time, according to the method proposed in this paper, vulnerable road sections can be selected scientifically, and the structural characteristics of the road network can be clearly located. Therefore, it is of great significance to the planning and management of road network and the promotion of urban road service capability.
【学位授予单位】：长安大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：U412.1;U491

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