基于出行者特性的出行行为研究

发布时间：2019-05-20 17:31

【摘要】：随着我国经济的快速发展,城市居民的交通出行问题已成为大众关注的焦点。基于居民出行调查数据,对居民出行行为进行分析,总结出行规律,是城市交通规划与建设不可缺少的工作,也可为相关部门制定交通管理政策提供参考依据。针对我国当前出行特征研究主要是基于出行调查数据的统计分析,本文提出利用Ordered Probit模型和回归模型深入分析出行者特性对出行特征的影响,同时鉴于国内研究中很少考虑家庭结构因素,本文在研究中分析了家庭结构对出行特征的影响。概括起来,本论文的研究内容主要包括以下三点： (1)从家庭内部作用关系、家庭结构、个人角色、陪同出行和儿童的存在等方面分析家庭对其成员活动出行的影响。 (2)针对居民出行调查数据特征,利用方差分析研究发现家庭结构、家庭收入、年龄等出行者特性对老年人和年轻人在通勤、购物、娱乐目的下的出行频率、出行距离和时耗有显著的影响。为了进一步弄清这些影响关系,本文利用Ordered Probit模型和多元回归模型对上述特性变量参数进行标定,研究结果表明核心家庭和多代家庭中老年人出行频率、出行距离和时耗少于退休家庭,特别是在娱乐出行中显著性明显；多代家庭中的年轻人通勤出行距离和时间多于核心家庭,而购物出行次数少于核心家庭中年轻人。 (3)分析居民出行方式的影响特性,利用最大效用理论,通过对调查数据的分析,分别确定在通勤、购物和娱乐出行目的下各出行方式的效用函数特性变量。构建多项Logit模型并进行模型参数标定、检验及优化,最后解释分析出行方式选择行为,并提出特性变量贡献度概念来比较性别、年龄、换乘次数、行程时间等特性对出行方式选择的影响大小。本文结合交通规划理论,基于数据分析方法,应用统计软件和相关模型,定量研究了城市居民的出行行为特征。本文的研究对解释老年人和年轻人不同目的下的出行特征、出行方式选择、科学制定交通出行引导措施具有实际意义。
[Abstract]:With the rapid development of economy in our country, the traffic travel problem of urban residents has become the focus of public attention. Based on the survey data of residents' travel, this paper analyzes the travel behavior of residents and summarizes the travel law, which is an indispensable work in urban traffic planning and construction, and can also provide a reference for the relevant departments to formulate traffic management policies. In view of the fact that the current research on travel characteristics in China is mainly based on the statistical analysis of travel survey data, this paper proposes to use Ordered Probit model and regression model to deeply analyze the impact of traveler characteristics on travel characteristics. At the same time, in view of the fact that the family structure factors are rarely considered in the domestic research, this paper analyzes the influence of the family structure on the travel characteristics. To sum up, the research contents of this paper mainly include the following three points: (1) from the aspects of family internal functional relationship, family structure, personal role, escort travel and the existence of children, the influence of family on the activity travel of its members is analyzed. (2) according to the data characteristics of residents' travel survey, using variance analysis, it is found that the travel frequency of the elderly and young people under commuting, shopping and entertainment purposes is affected by the characteristics of family structure, family income, age and so on. Travel distance and time consumption have a significant impact. In order to further understand the relationship between these effects, this paper uses Ordered Probit model and multiple regression model to calibrate the parameters of the above characteristic variables. The results show that the travel frequency of the middle-aged and the elderly in the nuclear family and the multi-generation family. The travel distance and time consumption are less than those of retired families, especially in entertainment travel. Young people in multi-generation families travel more distance and time than nuclear families, while shopping trips are less frequent than those in nuclear families. (3) the influence characteristics of residents' travel mode are analyzed, and the utility function characteristic variables of each travel mode under the purpose of commuting, shopping and entertainment are determined by using the maximum utility theory and the analysis of the survey data. The multi-item Logit model is constructed and the model parameters are calibrated, tested and optimized. finally, the behavior of travel mode selection is explained and analyzed, and the concept of contribution degree of characteristic variables is put forward to compare gender, age and transfer times. The influence of travel time and other characteristics on the choice of travel mode. Based on the theory of traffic planning, based on the data analysis method, this paper quantitatively studies the travel behavior characteristics of urban residents by using statistical software and related models. The research in this paper is of practical significance to explain the travel characteristics of the elderly and young people under different purposes, the choice of travel modes, and the scientific formulation of traffic travel guidance measures.
【学位授予单位】：北京交通大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：U491.1

【引证文献】