考虑诱增交通量的四阶段交通需求预测模型研究
发布时间：2019-06-18 15:08
【摘要】：新建或扩建道路是解决道路交通拥挤的方法之一,它可以提高道路通行能力,但由于新建或扩建道路在一定时间后又会产生新的交通需求(诱增交通量),从而导致新的交通拥挤。因此,在进行交通需求预测时,必须充分考虑新建或扩建道路所产生的诱增交通量,制定具有较好前瞻性的道路交通规划,以满足未来的道路交通需求。 本文旨在建立考虑诱增交通量的四阶段交通需求预测模型,主要研究工作包括如下三方面： (1)诱增交通量概念、产生机理与弹性系数模型研究。本文系统整理了国内外诱增交通量的有关研究成果,明确了诱增交通量的概念与产生机理,并在收集我国车出行公里数及其影响因素(人口、地区生产总值、公路里程等)有关数据的基础上,运用弹性系数模型(基础弹性系数模型和先进弹性系数模型)分析了我国诱增交通量的现实情况。研究结果表明：全国车出行公里数与公路里程之间的短期(一年)弹性系数为0.026～0.274；长期(两年及两年以上)弹性系数为0.367～0.773,说明我国新建或扩建道路在一定时间后确实存在诱增交通量,短期诱增交通量产生较少,长期诱增交通量将显著增加。 (2)通过在传统四阶段交通需求预测模型中引入“可达性”,构建了具有反馈构造的考虑诱增交通量的四阶段交通需求预测模型。该模型一方面运用反馈构造可以解决传统四阶段交通需求预测模型中存在的各阶段出行时间不一致性问题,另一方面在模型中“可达性”的引入考虑由于新建或扩建道路提高路网可达性后对未来交通量的影响,解决传统四阶段交通需求预测模型中忽略诱增交通量影响的问题。 (3)基于具有反馈构造的考虑诱增交通量的四阶段交通需求预测模型建立和参数标定(如道路阻抗函数建立),运用TransCAD交通规划软件将此模型实现,并选择大连市道路网进行实证研究。首先通过该模型和传统四阶段交通需求预测模型结果对比,证实考虑诱增交通量的四阶段交通需求预测模型可以准确的预测交通量,符合现实情况。其次应用该模型对大连市区1994年和2010年道路交通量进行计算,发现1994年-2010年间大连市区产生的道路诱增交通量占2010年道路总交通量的9.7%。最后依据2010年道路网预测大连市区2020年的交通需求情况,获得未来道路交通量的分配情况。 综上所述,本文提出的具有反馈构造的考虑诱增交通量的四阶段交通需求预测模型,不仅可以预测由于新建或扩建道路提高路网可达性而产生的诱增交通量,还可以改进传统四阶段交通需求预测模型的预测精度,为制定满足未来交通需求的交通规划提供较为准确的交通量预测值。
[Abstract]:The new or expanded road is one of the methods to solve the road traffic congestion, which can improve the road traffic capacity, but new traffic demand (induced traffic volume) will be generated after a certain period of time due to the construction or expansion of the road, resulting in new traffic congestion. Therefore, in carrying out the traffic demand forecast, the induced traffic volume generated by the newly-built or expanded road must be fully considered, and a better forward-looking road traffic plan should be developed to meet the road traffic demand in the future. The purpose of this paper is to establish a four-stage traffic demand forecast model considering the induced traffic volume. The main research work includes the following three parties: Surface: (1) the concept of induced traffic volume, the mechanism and the modulus of elasticity In this paper, the research results of the induced traffic volume at home and abroad are finished, the concept and the mechanism of the induced traffic volume are clarified, and the data of the number of vehicle trips and its influencing factors (population, gross domestic product, road mileage, etc.) in China are collected. On the base of using the elastic coefficient model (the base coefficient model and the advanced elastic coefficient model), the present situation of the induced traffic volume in China is analyzed. The results show that the short-term (one year) elastic coefficient between the number of travel kilometers and the road mileage of the whole country is 0.026-0.274, the elastic coefficient of the long-term (two years and over two years) is 0.367-0.773, which indicates that the newly-built or expanded road in China does exist after a certain period of time. The traffic volume and the short-term induced traffic volume are less, and the long-term induced traffic volume will be displayed By introducing the "accessibility" in the traditional four-stage traffic demand forecasting model, the four-stage traffic need to consider the induced traffic volume with the feedback structure is constructed. The model can be obtained by using the feedback structure on the one hand to solve the problem of the inconsistency of the travel time of each stage in the traditional four-stage traffic demand forecasting model. On the other hand, the introduction of the "accessibility" in the model takes into account the future intersection due to the improvement of the accessibility of the road network due to the newly-built or expanded road. The effect of flux is to solve the problem of ignoring the induced traffic volume in the traditional four-stage traffic demand forecasting model and (3) building and parameter calibration based on a four-stage traffic demand forecast model with a feedback configuration (e.g., establishing a road impedance function), realizing the model by using the TransCAD traffic planning software, and selecting the Dalian road Based on the comparison between the model and the traditional four-stage traffic demand forecasting model, it is proved that the four-stage traffic demand forecasting model considering the induced traffic volume can accurately predict the traffic volume. This model is used to calculate the traffic volume of Dalian district in 1994 and 2010, and it is found that the road-induced traffic volume from the Dalian area in 1994-2010 accounts for the total road traffic of 2010 9.7% of the flux. Finally, according to the 2010 road network, the traffic demand in Dalian area is predicted by 2020, and the future road will be obtained. To sum up, the four-stage traffic demand forecasting model with the feedback structure considering the induced traffic volume can not only predict the road network accessibility due to the new or expanded road and the forecast accuracy of the traditional four-stage traffic demand forecasting model can be improved,
【学位授予单位】：大连理工大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：U491.12
[Abstract]:The new or expanded road is one of the methods to solve the road traffic congestion, which can improve the road traffic capacity, but new traffic demand (induced traffic volume) will be generated after a certain period of time due to the construction or expansion of the road, resulting in new traffic congestion. Therefore, in carrying out the traffic demand forecast, the induced traffic volume generated by the newly-built or expanded road must be fully considered, and a better forward-looking road traffic plan should be developed to meet the road traffic demand in the future. The purpose of this paper is to establish a four-stage traffic demand forecast model considering the induced traffic volume. The main research work includes the following three parties: Surface: (1) the concept of induced traffic volume, the mechanism and the modulus of elasticity In this paper, the research results of the induced traffic volume at home and abroad are finished, the concept and the mechanism of the induced traffic volume are clarified, and the data of the number of vehicle trips and its influencing factors (population, gross domestic product, road mileage, etc.) in China are collected. On the base of using the elastic coefficient model (the base coefficient model and the advanced elastic coefficient model), the present situation of the induced traffic volume in China is analyzed. The results show that the short-term (one year) elastic coefficient between the number of travel kilometers and the road mileage of the whole country is 0.026-0.274, the elastic coefficient of the long-term (two years and over two years) is 0.367-0.773, which indicates that the newly-built or expanded road in China does exist after a certain period of time. The traffic volume and the short-term induced traffic volume are less, and the long-term induced traffic volume will be displayed By introducing the "accessibility" in the traditional four-stage traffic demand forecasting model, the four-stage traffic need to consider the induced traffic volume with the feedback structure is constructed. The model can be obtained by using the feedback structure on the one hand to solve the problem of the inconsistency of the travel time of each stage in the traditional four-stage traffic demand forecasting model. On the other hand, the introduction of the "accessibility" in the model takes into account the future intersection due to the improvement of the accessibility of the road network due to the newly-built or expanded road. The effect of flux is to solve the problem of ignoring the induced traffic volume in the traditional four-stage traffic demand forecasting model and (3) building and parameter calibration based on a four-stage traffic demand forecast model with a feedback configuration (e.g., establishing a road impedance function), realizing the model by using the TransCAD traffic planning software, and selecting the Dalian road Based on the comparison between the model and the traditional four-stage traffic demand forecasting model, it is proved that the four-stage traffic demand forecasting model considering the induced traffic volume can accurately predict the traffic volume. This model is used to calculate the traffic volume of Dalian district in 1994 and 2010, and it is found that the road-induced traffic volume from the Dalian area in 1994-2010 accounts for the total road traffic of 2010 9.7% of the flux. Finally, according to the 2010 road network, the traffic demand in Dalian area is predicted by 2020, and the future road will be obtained. To sum up, the four-stage traffic demand forecasting model with the feedback structure considering the induced traffic volume can not only predict the road network accessibility due to the new or expanded road and the forecast accuracy of the traditional four-stage traffic demand forecasting model can be improved,
【学位授予单位】：大连理工大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：U491.12
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