非机动车驾驶人道路交通事故风险行为量化分级研究

发布时间：2019-06-28 10:35

【摘要】：为了确定非机动车驾驶人主要的风险驾驶行为,通过对北京市近10年道路交通事故数据的分析,确定了导致机动车与非机动车之间(简称机非)发生交通事故的微观致因,特别分析了动态视线障碍产生的原因及作用;借助事故树分析方法,得出了各致因之间的逻辑关系,建立了机非事故发生机理图。按照交通出行主体或交通设施的不同,进一步对机理图中所反映的风险(A至F)进行再分解,并由此建立了基于关键度系数、对应相关行为的风险估算模型。考虑到仅需比较风险大小,一方面将主要风险行为导致事故的占比、各类与基本事件相关违法行为被处罚的占比以及问卷调查数据对执法倾向性的修正作为估算依据,另一方面保留无法估算的交通设施因子仅比较其系数大小,最终实现了对非机动车驾驶人风险行为的量化分级。
[Abstract]:In order to determine the main risk driving behavior of the non-motor vehicle driver, through the analysis of the road traffic accident data in the past 10 years in Beijing, the microscopic cause of the traffic accident between the motor vehicle and the non-motor vehicle is determined. In this paper, the causes and effects of the dynamic line-of-sight barrier are analyzed, and the logical relation between the two causes is obtained by means of the accident tree analysis method, and the mechanism diagram of the non-accident of the machine is established. The risk (A to F), which is reflected in the mechanism diagram, is further decomposed according to the difference of the travel main body or the traffic facility, and the risk estimation model based on the key degree coefficient and the corresponding behavior is established. taking into account that only the risk size needs to be compared, on the one hand, the proportion of the accidents, the proportion of all types of illegal behaviors related to the basic events and the correction of the law enforcement tendency of the questionnaire data are used as the estimation basis, On the other hand, the traffic facility factor which cannot be estimated is only compared with the coefficient size, and the quantitative classification of the risk behavior of the non-motor vehicle driver is finally realized.
【作者单位】：首都经济贸易大学城市经济与公共管理学院;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金项目(71371128) 首都经济贸易大学科研基金项目(01691465730104)
【分类号】：U491.22;U491.3

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