中国产区苹果越冬冻害的风险评估

发布时间：2018-01-29 19:49

本文关键词： 苹果越冬冻害风险概率逻辑斯特回归　出处：《自然资源学报》2017年05期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：越冬期冻害是影响苹果种植分布和质量形成的主要气象灾害之一。论文利用1961—2014年2 084个气象站点资料和冻害调查数据,基于二分类Logistic回归分别建立了越冬期初冬冻害和极端低温冻害发生的概率预测模型,并按照风险极低、低、中度、高、极高等5个等级进行了空间划分。结果表明:建立的初冬冻害和极端低温冻害风险概率预测模型均通过了Hosmer-Losmer检验,独立样本的预测准确率分别达到了83.6%和91.4%。中国产区苹果的越冬冻害主要以初冬冻害为主,覆盖了除黄河故道和云南产区外的大部分果区,而极端低温冻害主要分布在纬度或海拔较高的环渤海湾北部产区、黄土高原西北部和北疆。两种冻害的高风险区域面积基本相当,中度以上风险面积较大的省份依次为甘肃、辽宁、河北和山西,但苹果种植面积最大的陕西和山东遭遇两种冻害特别是极端低温冻害的风险概率总体较低。
[Abstract]:Freezing injury in winter period is one of the main meteorological disasters affecting the distribution and quality of apple planting. In this paper, the data of 2,084 meteorological stations and the survey data of freezing injury from 1961-2014 were used. Based on the two-classification Logistic regression, the probability prediction models of freezing injury in early winter and extreme low temperature in overwintering period were established, and the risk was very low, low, moderate and high. The results showed that the probabilistic prediction models of the early winter freezing injury and extreme low temperature freezing injury risk had passed the Hosmer-Losmer test. The prediction accuracy of independent samples reached 83.6% and 91.4 respectively. The winter freezing injury of apple in China was mainly early winter freezing injury, covering most fruit areas except the Yellow River Road and Yunnan production area. The extreme low temperature frostbite was mainly distributed in the northern region of Bohai Bay with higher latitude or altitude, the northwest of the Loess Plateau and the north of Xinjiang. The area of the two kinds of high risk areas was basically the same. Gansu, Liaoning, Hebei and Shanxi are the provinces with moderate risk area or above, but Shaanxi and Shandong, which have the largest apple planting area, suffer from two kinds of freezing injury, especially the extremely low temperature freezing injury, the risk probability of which is lower in general.
【作者单位】：陕西省经济作物气象服务台;中国气象科学研究院;
【基金】：中国气象局气象关键技术集成与应用项目(CMAGJ2015M60);中国气象局气候变化专项(CCSF201621)~~
【分类号】：S426;S661.1
【正文快照】： 越冬冻害是限制落叶果树种植分布界限和优质果品形成的重要因素[1-2]。在全球变暖的背景下,中高纬度果区增温显著,霜冻日数普遍减少,极端低温的频次和强度有所减弱[3-5],但气候变化也导致果树的抗寒锻炼及发育进程发生改变,加之极端低温事件发生的随机性和不确定性,使得果树越

【相似文献】