河套灌区水稻对低温冷害敏感性的模拟研究

发布时间：2018-02-02 08:01

  本文关键词： 水稻产量 低温冷害 敏感性 模拟　出处：《南京信息工程大学》2015年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：IPCC第五次评估报告指出,1998～2012年间全球地表以平均0.05℃/10a的趋势上升。全球变暖背景下,中国近50a增温速率为0.22℃/10a,明显高于同期全球或北半球,其中北方和青藏高原较其他地区增温显著。全球气候变暖背景下作物生育期内热量资源逐年增多,使人们对低温冷害的防御程度下降；作物种植界限北移东扩,早中熟作物品种逐渐被中晚熟品种替代；区域性或局地低温冷害发生频率增加,低温冷害损失增加；干旱加剧,人为灌溉导致的致冷效应增加,也增加了低温冷害的发生概率。水稻是我国最重要的粮食作物之一,其生产关系到国家和地区的粮食安全问题。宁夏河套灌区水稻种植历史悠久,是全国优质水稻高产区之一。河套灌区的水稻种植以中、晚熟品种为主,水稻生长的关键时期低温冷害频繁发生,给水稻生长发育及产量带来严重影响。因此,研究低温冷害对水稻生长发育的影响有重要的意义。本研究基于DSSAT系统中的CERES-Rice模型,结合宁夏河套灌区的历史气象资料、土壤资料、水稻田间观测试验资料、产量资料等,对典型水稻品种进行遗传参数本地化,模拟低温冷害对水稻的影响,进行不同生育期低温冷害对水稻生长发育及产量影响的评估,为宁夏河套灌区水稻生产的决策管理和应对气候变化提供可靠的技术支持。主要结论如下：1.作物生长模型的验证：利用宁夏中卫站水稻田间试验数据进行CERES-Rice模型的时间验证。CERES-Rice模型对水稻产量、单位面积籽粒数、播种至开花期日数和播种至成熟期日数均具有较好的模拟能力。利用河套灌区10个站点的水稻试验资料进行模型在空间上的验证,产量和单位面积籽粒数观测值与模拟值间误差较小,说明CERES-Rice模型在空间上也具有较好的模拟能力。2.河套灌区1960～2013年气候变化分析：1960～2013年河套灌区的气温变化表明,年平均最低气温上升趋势显著,年平均最高气温上升趋势较小。近30a气温平均值(9.64-C)比1974～2003年30a气温平均值上升了0.44-C,说明河套灌区近年持续增暖。1960～2013年间年降水量下降幅度为3.93mmm/10a。1960～2012年平均日照时数为2969h,以65h/10a倾向率下降。21世纪起日照时数减少趋势尤其显著。年平均最高气温和最低气温发生了突变,突变时间分别为1995年和1988年。准2-4a周期变化在年平均最高气温、年平均气温、年降水量和年日照时数上较为显著。年最低平均气温只存在2.5-3a的显著周期变化。年平均气温除2-4a周期变化外还存在2.5a和3-4a显著周期变化。年降水量还存在4-8a和4-7a的显著周期变化。3. CERES-Rice模型对低温冷害的模拟验证：通过对1981～2012年间河套灌区水稻低温冷害的模拟结果表明,产量变化率大部分在-10%-+10%之间,平均RMSE值为526.03 kg/hm2,整体误差较小；各生育期E值较小,偏离程度较小；EF值均小于0.75,模拟值与观测值间符合度较低；D值均大于0.85,模拟值与观测值间一致性较高。说明CERES-Rice模型对水稻低温冷害也具有较好的模拟能力。4.河套灌区低温冷害对水稻的敏感性模拟研究：1)水稻不同生育期不同程度降低气温和同时降低气温和太阳辐射2种情景会造成水稻播种至开花期日数和播种至成熟期日数的增加；降低太阳辐射只在苗期对水稻生育期产生影响。苗期受延迟型低温冷害对生育期的影响最大,抽穗扬花期受延迟型低温冷害的影响最小。气温降低对水稻生育期影响较大,而太阳辐射降低对水稻生育期影响较小,但两者同时降低对水稻生育期影响较大。模型对水稻苗期低温冷害模拟中,对同时降低气温和太阳辐射的敏感性最大,对降低太阳辐射的敏感性最小；模型对水稻孕穗期、抽穗扬花期低温冷害模拟中,只对气温的降低敏感,对太阳辐射的降低不敏感;模型对水稻灌浆期低温冷害模拟中,对气温的降低敏感性较大,对同时降低气温和太阳辐射的敏感性较小,对单独降低太阳辐射不敏感。2)各生育期不同程度降低气温、太阳辐射、气温和太阳辐射3种情况均会造成不同程度的减产,且同一情况下持续时间越长,对水稻产量的减产率影响越大。降低气温对水稻减产率的影响程度比降低太阳辐射要大,同时降低气温和太阳辐射会造成更大程度的水稻减产率。水稻灌浆期受延迟型低温冷害对水稻产量影响最大,造成最大减产率,说明灌浆期水稻对低温冷害更为敏感。在延迟型低温冷害中,降低气温得到的平均最大减产率为26.5%,降低太阳辐射得到的平均最大减产率为14.25%,同时降低气温和太阳辐射得到的平均最大减产率为31.25%；障碍型低温冷害中,降低气温得到的平均最大减产率为2.1%,降低太阳辐射得到的平均最大减产率为6.9%,同时降低气温和太阳辐射得到的平均最大减产率为5.85%。模型对水稻苗期、孕穗期、抽穗扬花期和灌浆期受低温冷害的模拟中,对同时降低气温和太阳辐射的敏感性最大,对单独降低太阳辐射的敏感性最小。模型对延迟型低温冷害和低水平的障碍型低温冷害模拟效果较好：气温低于14-C时,模型对障碍型低温冷害模拟效果较差；综合考虑,模型对水稻低温冷害的模拟效果理想。
[Abstract]:IPCC fifth assessment report pointed out that 1998~2012 years of global surface rise by an average of 0.05 DEG /10a trend. Under the background of global warming, China nearly 50A warming rate of 0.22 degrees /10a, significantly higher than the same period of the world or the northern hemisphere, the Northern Qinghai Tibet Plateau and other parts of temperature increase significantly. Under the background of global warming of crop growth during the period of heat resources increased year by year, so that people defense against chilling injury degree decreased; crop planting boundary extending northward and eastward, early maturing crop varieties were gradually in the late maturing varieties substitution; or local area increased frequency of occurrence of chilling injury, loss of chilling damage increase; drought, increase the cooling effect caused by man-made irrigation, also increased the probability of occurrence of chilling injury. Rice is one of the most important food crops in China, its production is related to the national and regional food security in Hetao Irrigation District of Ningxia rice. A long history of cultivation, is one of the high grade rice. Rice planting in Hetao irrigation area, late maturing varieties, a critical period of growth of rice chilling injury occurred frequently, to have a serious impact on rice growth and yield. Therefore, there is important significance to study effects of chilling injury on the growth and development of rice. This study based on CERES-Rice the model of DSSAT system, combined with the historical meteorological data of Ningxia Hetao irrigation area soil, rice field observation data, yield data, genetic parameters of localization of typical rice varieties, effects of chilling injury on rice, assessment of chilling injury in different stages of growth and yield of rice, and provide reliable technical support for decision making management and climate change of rice in Ningxia Hetao Irrigation District production. The main conclusions are as follows: 1. crop growth model test C: CERES-Rice models using the ZhongWei Railway Station in Ningxia rice field test data verified.CERES-Rice model on rice yield, grain number per unit area, sowing to flowering and days from sowing to maturity were both has a good simulation ability. Verified by using the experimental data of rice in Hetao Irrigation District, 10 sites were in the space of the model the error between the simulation value, and the smaller the grain yield per unit area and the number of observations, which indicates that the CERES-Rice model has better simulation analysis of climate change.2. in Hetao irrigation area of 1960~2013 years in space: the results showed that the temperature changes of 1960~2013 years in Hetao Irrigation District, the average annual minimum temperature rise significantly, the average maximum temperature rise nearly 30A smaller. The average air temperature (9.64-C) of more than 1974~2003 years the average temperature of 30a increased by 0.44-C, that in Hetao Irrigation District in recent years continued warming.1960 ~ 2013 The inter annual precipitation decreased from 3.93mmm/10a.1960 to 2012 average sunshine hours for 2969h, down.21 century sunshine hours decreased significantly in 65h/10a. Especially the trend rate of annual average maximum temperature and minimum temperature mutation, mutation time respectively in 1995 and 1988. The quasi periodic variation of 2-4a in the highest annual average temperature, annual average the temperature, precipitation and sunshine duration on the annual mean minimum temperature is more significant. There was significant periodic variations of 2.5-3a. The annual average temperature in the periodic variation of 2-4a is 2.5A and 3-4A significant cycle. Simulation model of CERES-Rice.3. a significant period of annual precipitation variation are also 4-8a and 4-7a on chilling injury the simulation results of rice chilling injury in Hetao Irrigation District in 1981~2012 years showed that most yield change rate between -10%-+10%, the average RMSE value was 526.03 kg/hm2, the whole Body smaller error; the growth period E value is smaller, the smaller degree of deviation; EF values were less than 0.75, the simulated values accord with observed values between the degree is relatively low; the D values are greater than 0.85, the simulation value of high consistent with observations. The results showed that CERES-Rice model has better sensitivity simulation of the simulation ability of.4. low temperature in Hetao Irrigation District chilling injury on rice chilling injury of rice: 1) at different growth stages of rice reduced temperature and also decreased with the increase of 2 scenarios will cause rice sowing to flowering days and sowing to maturity were temperature and solar radiation; reduce solar radiation only at the seedling stage on growth stages of rice seedling by delay effect. The effect of chilling on the growth period, flowering stage affected by delayed chilling injury. The minimum temperature reduced influence on rice growth period and reduce the solar radiation on the growth period. 鍝嶈緝灏，

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