基于主成分分析和层次分析法相结合的陕西省农业干旱风险评估

发布时间：2018-02-10 07:51

本文关键词： 农业干旱风险评估主成分分析层次分析法陕西省　出处：《干旱地区农业研究》2017年01期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：农业干旱灾害发生机理复杂,评价指标众多,为确定合理的干旱风险评价指标,以陕西省为研究对象,提出基于主成分分析和层次分析法(AHP)相结合的农业干旱风险评价指标体系和评估方法。运用主成分分析,结合陕西省干旱成因及特点,基于风险四要素(危险性、暴露性、脆弱性和抗旱能力)筛选并构建了农业干旱风险评价指标体系,采用AHP评估了陕西省农业干旱风险。结果表明,在考虑地区抗旱能力情况下,陕西省农业干旱风险从北向南,从东向西均呈现出递减趋势,北部榆林地区和东部渭南、商洛地区,农业干旱风险较高。通过主成分分析和AHP相结合的评价体系,可以合理选取评价指标,缩减指标个数;准确评估干旱风险,指出风险要素来源,为抗旱部门有效识别致灾因子,提出相应的抗旱减灾方法。
[Abstract]:The mechanism of agricultural drought disaster is complex and the evaluation index is numerous. In order to determine the reasonable drought risk evaluation index, Shaanxi Province is taken as the research object. The evaluation index system and assessment method of agricultural drought risk based on the combination of principal component analysis (PCA) and analytic hierarchy process (AHP) are put forward. Using principal component analysis (PCA) and combining with the causes and characteristics of drought in Shaanxi Province, four factors of risk (risk, exposure) are put forward. The evaluation index system of agricultural drought risk was established, and the agricultural drought risk of Shaanxi Province was evaluated by AHP. The results showed that the agricultural drought risk of Shaanxi Province changed from north to south under the condition of regional drought resistance. The risk of agricultural drought is higher in Yulin area, Weinan area and Shangluo area in the north and east. The evaluation index can be reasonably selected and the number of indexes can be reduced by the combination of principal component analysis and AHP evaluation system. To evaluate drought risk accurately, to point out the source of risk factors, to identify the disaster factors effectively and to put forward the corresponding methods of drought resistance and disaster reduction.
【作者单位】：西安理工大学水利水电学院西北旱区生态水利工程国家重点实验室培育基地;中国灌溉排水发展中心;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金(51239009;51409212;51409213) 陕西省水利科技计划项目“陕西省农业干旱风险评估与区划研究”(2014slkj-1010)
【分类号】：S423

【参考文献】