洪涝灾害对水稻生产的影响以及与孟加拉国气候变化（降水）的关系

发布时间：2018-02-22 18:43

本文关键词： 孟加拉国降雨极端事件气候变化洪水　出处：《中国农业科学院》2016年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：孟加拉国是南亚的一个小国,位于北回归线以南,世界最高山脉——喜马拉雅山脉脚下。孟加拉国是一个地势较低的平原国家,内陆水资源极其丰富,其中包括世界上一些较大的河流。农业是孟加拉国经济生产部门中最大的单一部门,其对GDP的贡献率达到了20.24%,且占据了全国48.1%的劳动力人口。水稻是孟加拉国人民最主要的主粮,其种植面积占所有作物种植面积的77.07%(BBS,2013)。稻米在全部谷类食物供应中的比例为96%。另一方面,孟加拉国是最易自然灾害如洪涝等灾害的国家。洪涝能对农作物尤其是水稻造成毁灭性的灾害。由于气候(降水)的变化以及一些极端气候事件,如降雨量、降雨方式的变化能影响洪涝的发生,直接影响了孟加拉国的水稻生产,从而导致粮食安全危机。当前面临的主要挑战之一是保障粮食安全,同时,产量以及最大化利用有限水资源来满足需求的粮食利用率也是也是孟加拉国面临的一个严峻挑战。本研究基于次级资料进行分析,以期找出降雨量与洪涝的直接关系。利用Rclim Dex1.0软件对10项指标数据进行计算,再利用XLSTAT(2015)软件对计算的数据进行mann-kendall测验,以确定降雨量和洪涝之间的趋势走向。本研究调查了水稻生产的长期变化,并试图揭示水稻栽培与水文环境之间的联系。在洪涝灾害发生严重的年份,洪涝对水稻生产的影响是显而易见的。在重大洪涝灾害过后的年份,Aman水稻生产通常会严重损失,但Boro作物的产量会增加。本研究还调查了水稻生长期降雨方式的变化以及需水量对水稻产量的影响。除了北部外,所有地区的Aus水稻在育秧准备时就已没有足够的降雨且呈递减趋势。在Aman水稻产量形成和成熟阶段,降雨量少于实际需水量且所有地区均呈递减趋势。在Boro季节,除了北部、西北、东部和南部地区一月时的营养生长阶段,所有地区和阶段的降雨量均呈减势,此比率并不是很高,这表明Boro水稻种植对人工灌溉的依赖性将会增加。本文针对易受灾害的水稻种植区进行了研究,发现Aus、Aman和Boro易受干旱灾害的地区分别是西北地区、北部和西北地区、及西南地区,而易受洪涝灾害的地区分别是东南地区、东南地区和东部地区。国家平均降雨量在近30年呈下降的趋势,即使谷值2500 mm的降雨量但依然呈递减趋势。降雨量的极值是Rx1天、Rx5天、R(44~88)mm和R(88+)mm,都是由于洪涝而产生的。Rx1在中部和南部地区呈增长趋势,但Rx5天除了东部地区外所有地区都增加。另一方面,R(44~88)mm在南部和西南地区增加,而R(88+)mm除了东部和北部外都增加。在4个事件中,4事件在任何地区都没有增加,但3事件在中南、东南和西南都增加,这表明极端洪涝灾害在沿海地区有所增加。此外,4个事件在东部地区减少意味着洪涝在东部地区有所减弱,而4个事件中也有3个事件在北部地区有所减少。在不久的将来,北部地区将遭受干旱。本研究是在分析历史资料后气候参数长期趋势分析的第一步,我们发现孟加拉国的极端降雨事件在未来有一系列的变化。因降雨量在孟加拉国是一个重要因素,虽然本研究有一定的局限性,然而调查结果对于孟加拉国的一些利益相关者,尤其是农业组织、灾害管理部门及发展和规划组织也具有一定的参考价值。
[Abstract]:Bangladesh is a small country in South Asia, located in the south of the Tropic of cancer, the world's highest mountains, the mountains at the foot of Himalaya. Bangladesh is a low-lying plain country, inland water resources is extremely rich, including some of the larger rivers in the world. Agriculture is the single largest economic sector production sector in Bangladesh. The contribution rate of GDP reached 20.24%, which occupies 48.1% of the country's labor force population. Rice is the main staple food for people in Bangladesh, its planting area accounted for 77.07% of all crop planting area (BBS, 2013). The proportion of rice in all cereals in the food supply for the 96%. on the other hand, Bangladesh is the most easily disasters such as floods and other disasters. The national flood of crops especially rice can cause devastating disasters. Due to climate change (precipitation) and the number of extreme weather events, such as rainfall, rainfall The changes can affect the occurrence of floods, has a direct impact on rice production in Bangladesh, resulting in food safety crisis. One of the main challenge is to ensure food security, at the same time, the yield and the maximum utilization of limited water resources to meet the demand of the food utilization rate is also facing a severe challenge in Bangladesh in this research. Based on secondary data analysis, to find out the relationship between rainfall and flood directly. In order to 10 indicators of data were calculated by using Rclim Dex1.0 software, using XLSTAT (2015) software Mann-Kendall to test data to determine trends between rainfall and flood trend. This study investigated the long-term changes of rice production, and to reveal the hydrological environment between cultivation and rice. The serious flood disaster in the year. The effects of flooding on rice production is obvious See. After the flood disaster of the year, Aman rice production usually serious losses, but the Boro crop yield will increase. This study also investigated the changes of rice growing season rainfall patterns and effects of water on the yield of rice. In addition to the north, rice water Aus in all regions have been prepared in the nursery there is not enough rainfall and showed a decreasing trend. In the stage of Aman rice yield and maturity, annual rainfall is less than the actual water demand and all regions showed a decreasing trend. In the Boro season, in addition to the north, northwest, vegetative growth stage in eastern and southern regions of the January, all regions and stages of rainfall showed a reduction potential, the the ratio is not very high, which indicates that Boro rice planting to increase artificial irrigation dependent will. Aiming at the disaster prone rice planting area was studied, found that Aus, Aman and Boro are susceptible to drought damage area Are the northwest, North and northwest, and southwest regions, and regions vulnerable to flood disaster are the southeast region, southeastern and eastern regions. The national average rainfall showed a downward trend in the past 30 years, even if the valley value of 2500 mm rainfall but still showed a decreasing trend. The maximum rainfall is Rx1 days Rx5, day R (44~88) mm and R (88+) mm, is due to the flood of.Rx1 showed an increasing trend in the central and southern regions, but Rx5 days in addition to eastern regions of all regions have increased. On the other hand, R (44~88) mm in the South and southwest area increased R (88+) mm in the East and North are increased. In 4 events, 4 events have not increased in any area, but the 3 events in the south, Southeast and southwest are increased, which indicates that the extreme flood disaster increased in coastal areas. In addition, 4 events in the eastern region to reduce the mean the flood in the East Area has weakened, while the 4 event also has 3 events decreased in the northern region. In the near future, the northern region will suffer from drought. This research is the first step in the analysis of the climate parameters after long-term trend analysis of historical data, we found that the extreme rainfall events in Bangladesh have a series of changes in the future. Rainfall is an important factor in Bangladesh, although the research has some limitations, however, the survey results for some stakeholders in Bangladesh, especially agricultural organization, disaster management and development planning and organization also has a certain reference value.

【学位授予单位】：中国农业科学院
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：S511;S422

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