农业旱涝灾害气象因子的致灾阈值研究进展

发布时间：2018-03-04 05:36

本文选题：农业旱涝灾害　切入点：气象致灾因子　出处：《灌溉排水学报》2016年11期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：农业易受旱涝影响造成严重损失,关于农业旱涝灾害气象因子的致灾阈值研究,在点尺度上从气象致灾因子的致灾机理、人工旱涝灾害试验及田间小区建立的作物模型模拟角度定量化致灾阈值;在面尺度上进行流域数理统计、气象致灾因子的旱涝指标以及理论假设基础上的气象致灾因子阈值等研究。目前存在的不足有:(1)研究内容上,气象致灾因子的致灾过程尚不甚清晰;(2)研究方法上,以统计方法建立的面尺度气象致灾因子及其可能阈值等尚未有较好的试验佐证。未来需要加强以下研究:(1)细化点尺度气象致灾过程研究,在致灾过程中寻找致灾规律,划定相应致灾阈值。(2)实现点、面尺度的转换,而其中转换工具的选取亦是决定尺度推绎和转换能否成功的关键。
[Abstract]:Agriculture is liable to be affected by drought and waterlogging, which causes serious losses. The research on the threshold value of meteorological factors of agricultural drought and flood disasters is based on the mechanism of meteorological disaster factors at the point scale. The artificial drought and flood disaster test and crop model simulation angle established in field plot are used to quantify the threshold of disaster, and the watershed mathematical statistics are carried out on the surface scale. The drought and flood indexes of meteorological disaster factors and the threshold value of meteorological disaster factors on the basis of theoretical assumptions are studied. At present, there are some shortcomings in the research contents, and the process of meteorological disaster factors is not very clear. The surface scale meteorological disaster factors and their possible thresholds established by the statistical method have not been well verified by experiments. In the future, we need to strengthen the following research on the research of the point scale meteorological disaster process, and find out the law of the disaster in the course of the disaster. And the selection of conversion tools is also the key to the success of scale derivation and conversion.
【作者单位】：安徽师范大学国土资源与旅游学院;安徽自然灾害过程与防控研究省级实验室;安徽省气象科学研究所;安徽师范大学江淮流域气候变化与水资源研究中心;
【分类号】：P467

【相似文献】