影响芜湖葡萄商品果率关键气候因子特征及预测

发布时间：2018-03-05 14:06

本文选题：葡萄　切入点：商品果率　出处：《气象科技》2017年01期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：基于1994—2014年研究区葡萄的逐年商品果率数据,1965—2014年芜湖市逐月的气象数据和1981年7月至2014年6月国家气候中心的逐月88项新大气环流指数、26项海温指数,使用相关性分析、线性趋势、MannKendall和多元逐步回归分析,对影响葡萄商品果率的关键气候因子进行遴选,并在此基础上对遴选因子的近50年变化特征和短期气候预测进行了分析与研究。结果表明:影响葡萄商品果率的关键气候因子有7、8月的平均气温(T_7,T_8)、最高气温(T_(max7),T_(max8))、最低气温(T_(min7),T_(min8))、相对湿度(R_(H7),R_(H8))、日照时数(S_7,S_8),以及8月的平均气温日较差(ΔT_8),近50年T7、T_(max7)和T_(min7)显著升高,RH7、ΔT8和S8显著下降,其中T7、T_(max7)、ΔT_8的变化以渐变为主,而T_(min7)、R_(H7)、ΔT_8则发生过突变。这些关键气候因子与前期1年内的多项大气环流指数和海温指数显著相关,并遴选其中关键指数作为预测芜湖市7、8月葡萄商品果率关键气候因子的短期气候预测指标,计算出气候因子的预测方程,以期为葡萄种植能够有效应对气候影响、保证商品果率提供帮助。
[Abstract]:Based on the annual commodity fruit rate data from 1994 to 2014 and the monthly meteorological data of Wuhu City from 1965 to 2014, and the monthly 88 monthly SST indexes of the National Climate Center from July 1981 to June 2014, the correlation analysis was used. Linear trend MannKendall and multivariate stepwise regression analysis were used to select the key climatic factors affecting grape fruit rate. On the basis of this, the variation characteristics of the selection factor and short-term climate prediction are analyzed and studied. The results show that the key climatic factors affecting grape fruit rate are 7, the average temperature of August is T7 / T / T / T / T / T, the highest temperature is T / T / T / T / T / T / T / T / T / T / T / T / T / T, the highest temperature is T / T / T / T / T / T / T / T / T / T / T. The relative humidity is very high, and the relative humidity is very high. The number of sunshine hours and the number of S7s, and the average daily temperature range of August (螖 T 8, nearly 50 years old) and the number of T, T 8 and S 8 have increased significantly, and the number of RH7, 螖 T 8 and S 8 has decreased significantly, and there has been a marked increase in RH7, 螖 T 8 and S 8, and the increase of RH7, 螖 T 8 and S 8 has been marked in the increase of RH7, 螖 T 8 and S 8, as well as the significant increase in the average daily temperature of August. Among them, T _ 7 / T _ T _ (max7), 螖 T _ (8) are mainly gradual changes, while T _ (T) / T _ (7) and 螖 T _ (8) have mutated. These key climatic factors are significantly related to a number of atmospheric circulation indices and sea surface temperature indices in the previous year. The key index was selected as the short-term climate prediction index to predict the key climate factors of grape fruit rate in Wuhu city in August, and the prediction equation of climate factors was calculated, so that grape planting could deal with the climate impact effectively. To ensure that the fruit rate of goods to help.
【作者单位】：安徽省芜湖市气象局;安徽省芜湖传云绿色果品种植专业合作社;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金(71473127) 安徽省科技厅重点科技攻关项目(1501031078) 安徽省气象局硕博士工作启动经费项目(RC201618)
【分类号】：S663.1;S162.55

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