基于ORYZA2000模型对江苏不同播期水稻高温热害的评估

发布时间：2018-03-15 06:26

本文选题：江苏　切入点：播期　出处：《南京信息工程大学》2017年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：水稻是我国重要的粮食作物,对于国家粮食安全稳定具有重要意义,但当前水稻面临着不同气象灾害的影响,尤其是高温热害。适宜播期的选择能有效地降低水稻遭受高温危害的程度,从而实现水稻的高产和稳产。因此,本文以两个高温指标(连续3d及以上最高气温(Tmax)≥35℃和均温(Tave)≥30℃)对江苏7个站点1966～2015年高温热害的情况进行时间和空间上的分析;继而基于2012和2013年两年的试验数据,分析播期对水稻生长发育及产量的影响,为适宜播期的选择提供理论上的支撑;在上述基础上,对原ORYZA2000模型进行光合、呼吸和穗干物质分配系数部分温度因子上的改进;最后,运用改进后的模型对南京和吴县东山两个高温发生比较严重的站点进行4个播期1966～2015年高温情况的模拟和评估,为适宜播期的选择提供参考。得到的主要结论如下:(1) 1966～2015年间,江苏地区Tmax≥35℃和Tave≥30°C两个临界温度可能出现的时间基本都处在125～250d之间,其中175～225d之间Tmax≥35℃发生概率主要以低于Tave发生概率为主,并且除徐州站外,其余站点越接近210d,Tmax≥35℃发生概率与Tave≥30℃相差越大;过去50年水稻生长季内(4～10月)各月连续3d及以上Tmax≥35℃和Tave≥30℃的天数及积温的各月均值在同一站点的情况基本一致,最高值出现在7月;多年变化趋势整体以增温为主,但均温指标更明显。两个高温中心多年均处在江苏的西南部,并随着时间推移向东南方向移动,但最高气温对应的高温中心多年移动范围更大。(2)播期的差异造成了生育阶段与气象因子配置的不同。两个高温指标显示各播期受高温危害的程度基本一致。在水稻高温敏感阶段内,2012年第1播期出现1次轻度高温热害,2013年第2和3播期均出现1次重度,第4播期出现1次轻度;而抽穗开花期仅2013年第2和3播期出现连续7d的中度高温。而不同播期各生育阶段对应气象因子的差异又造成了生育阶段长度及产量的不同。相关分析结果表明,2012年和2013年前两个播期产量均与后三个播期产量差异达到显著性水平(p0.05)。分析各生育阶段长度和产量与各阶段平均日最高气温、均温、降水和辐射的关系发现,与温度因子的关系相对最紧密,尤其是平均日最高气温。(3)调整最大光合速率与温度的关系,改进呼吸速率计算过程中的叶温和穗温,同时对穗干物质分配系数进行高温订正,以此对模型进行改进,并分别对改进前后模型的模拟结果与实际值进行比较。相比改进前,改进后模型模拟穗生物量、绿叶生物量、枯叶生物量、LAI和产量与实测值的均方根误差(RMSE)和归一化均方根误差(NRMSE)都有所减小,其中产量和穗生物量的NRMSE减小较为明显,分别减小和2.23%和1.83%;而从模拟值和实测值的1:1图来看,改进后模型对2013年地上部分总生物量的模拟效果有所提高,模拟值和实测值的线性回归系数更接近1。运用改进后的模型分别对南京和吴县东山两个站点1966～2015年120d、130d、140d和151d四个播期在实际气象条件和常年气象条件下的产量进行模拟。从整个50年高温对产量的影响来看,两个站点均表现为120d播期受高温影响造成的减产年份最多,产量减少总体最明显;而151d播期产量变化率波动最小,且减产都不明显,因此,认为选择151d左右作为这两个站点的播期更有利于获得产量的稳定。
[Abstract]:Rice is an important food crop in China, is of great significance for the national food security and stability, but the current rice faced with influence of different meteorological disasters, especially high temperature. Suitable sowing selection can effectively reduce the temperature of rice suffered damage, so as to realize rice production. Therefore, this paper takes two a high temperature index (continuous 3D and above the highest temperature more than 35 DEG C (Tmax) and temperature (Tave) of more than 30 DEG C) were analyzed in terms of time and space at 7 stations in Jiangsu for 1966~2015 years of heat damage; then based on the test data of 2012 and 2013 for two years, analyzed the effect of sowing date on growth and yield rice, for providing a theoretical support for the choice of sowing date; on the basis of the above, the original ORYZA2000 model of photosynthesis, respiration and panicle dry matter distribution coefficient of temperature improved factor; finally, using the improved The model of the 4 sowing period of 1966~2015 years of high temperature environment simulation and evaluation of Nanjing and Wuxian Dongshan two high temperature serious site, suitable sowing date for the reference. The main conclusions are as follows: (1) 1966~2015, Tmax in Jiangsu area of more than 35 DEG C and Tave = 30 ~ C two the critical temperature of the possible time basically in 125 ~ 250D, 175 ~ 225d between Tmax = 35 DEG C to Tave below the probability of occurrence probability, and in addition to the XuZhou Railway Station, the site is close to 210D, Tmax more than 35 DEG C and the probability of Tave less than 30 DEG C is bigger; the past 50 years the growth of rice the quarter (4~10 months) days and accumulated temperature of each month continuous 3D and above Tmax = 35 and Tave = 30 DEG C of the monthly average in the same site is basically the same, the highest value in July years; the overall trend to increase the temperature of the main, but refers to the temperature The subject is more obvious. Two years are in the high temperature center in southwestern Jiangsu, and with the passage of time, moving to the southeast, but the high temperature center moving range corresponding to the maximum temperature for many years more. (2) sowing time difference caused by the growth stage and the meteorological factors of different configurations. Two high temperature indicators in different sowing dates under high temperature, the extent of the damage is basically the same. In rice high temperature sensitive stage in 2012 first sowing 1 mild heat damage, 2013 second and third sowing period was 1 severe, fourth sowing 1 mild and flowering stage; only in 2013 second and third sowing of consecutive 7d moderate high temperature differences and different. Sowing in different growth stages and corresponding meteorological factors resulting in length and yield in different growth stages. The results of correlation analysis showed that in 2012 and 2013 two before sowing and yield were three months after sowing yield difference reached significant level (P0.05) analysis. The highest temperature, the average length of each growth stage and yield with different stages of temperature, precipitation and radiation that the relationship between the temperature and the relative factors most closely, especially the average daily maximum temperature. (3) the adjustment of the relationship between the maximum photosynthetic rate and temperature, leaf temperature and calculation process ear temperature improved the respiratory rate, and temperature correction on the spike dry matter distribution coefficient, in order to improve the model, and respectively before and after the improvement of model simulation results were compared with the actual value. Compared with before improvement, the improved model simulation of spike biomass, leaf biomass, leaf biomass, root mean square error and LAI the yield and the measured value (RMSE) and the normalized root mean square error (NRMSE) is reduced, the yield and spike biomass of NRMSE decreased significantly, and decreased 2.23% and 1.83% respectively; and from the simulated and measured values of 1:1 chart, improvement After the 2013 model of the total aboveground biomass of the simulation results improved, simulation of linear regression coefficient value and the measured value is closer to 1. using the improved model respectively in Nanjing and Wuxian Dongshan two sites 1966~2015 years 120d, 130d, 140d and 151d four sowing dates as perennial conditions and meteorological conditions in the actual production of gas from the simulation. The whole 50 years of high temperature on the yield of view, the two sites showed 120d sowing time affected by high temperature caused by the reduction of the year most, the most obvious decrease of overall yield; sowing date and 151d yield change rate minimum volatility, and production is not obvious, therefore, think about 151d as more sowing time of these two sites to obtain stable production.

【学位授予单位】：南京信息工程大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：S511;S42

【参考文献】