基于云模型的黄河故道砀山酥梨气候适宜性分析

发布时间：2018-03-17 13:23

本文选题：云模型　切入点：梯形云　出处：《中国农业气象》2017年05期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：选取黄河故道砀山酥梨代表性产地砀山县为样点,利用梨树物候期长期定位观测资料和气象监测数据,基于云模型理论建立了光、温、水气候适宜度。采用加权综合法和几何平均法,确定不同物候期和年际气候适宜度。结果表明,日照适宜度可由左半云,气温与降水适宜度可由梯形云来刻画。综合气候适宜度与梨果实际单产、气候产量和单株产量的相关系数分别为0.4452(P0.05)、0.3734和0.5620(P0.01)。1961-2015年,砀山酥梨气候适宜度变化趋势不明显,但1961-1989年和1990-2010年分别为气候适宜度偏高与偏低时段,1987年为气候适宜度累计距平最大年份。研究期间,气温适宜度呈极显著增加趋势,每10a约增加0.0274。日照与降水适宜度无明显变化趋势,降水适宜度平均值比日照和气温适宜度低,且变异系数是日照和气温适宜度变异系数的4倍。各物候期气候适宜度未呈现趋势性变化,但萌芽期和花期的气候适宜度偏低,在0.50~0.53,且变异系数较大,在45.0~57.0。其它物候期气候适宜度和变异系数相对偏小。在气候变化背景下,气温升高对梨果生长有利,砀山酥梨生产中应加强萌芽-花期的管理,以增强梨树的气候适宜性。
[Abstract]:Selection of the old course of the Yellow River Dangshan pear representative place in Dangshan County as the sample, using the tree phenology of long-term observation data and meteorological monitoring data, cloud model is established based on the theory of light, temperature, water and climate suitability. Using the weighted method and geometric mean method to determine the different period and interannual climate suitability. The results showed that and sunshine suitability degree by the left half cloud, air temperature and precipitation suitability by trapezium cloud to describe the actual yield of pear. And suitable climate, the correlation coefficient of climate yield and yield per plant were 0.4452, 0.3734 and 0.5620 (P0.05) (P0.01).1961-2015 years, pear climate suitability change trend is not obvious in Dangshan but, 1961-1989 years and 1990-2010 years respectively for high and low periods of climate suitability, climate suitability for 1987 cumulative anomaly maximum year. During the study period, the temperature suitability degree was significantly increased, each about 10A The increase of 0.0274. sunshine and precipitation suitability has no obvious change trend, the precipitation suitability average suitability is lower than the sunshine and temperature, and the coefficient of variation is 4 times for sunshine and temperature coefficient of variation. The phenological period of climate suitability is not a trend of change, but the bud and florescence climate suitability in low. 0.50~0.53, and the coefficient of variation is larger in 45.0~57.0. other phenology climate suitability and the coefficient of variation is relatively small. Under the background of climate change, temperature is favorable to the growth of pear, strengthen the bud flowering management of Dangshan pear production, in order to enhance the climate suitability of pear trees.

【作者单位】：安徽省宿州市气象局;安徽省合肥市气象局;
【基金】：安徽省气象科技发展基金项目(KM201607;KM201605)
【分类号】：S162.55;S661.2

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