两种常用的春玉米干旱等级指标在东北区域的适用性检验

发布时间：2018-03-24 13:13

本文选题：东北地区　切入点：春玉米　出处：《气象》2017年11期

【摘要】：作物干旱等级农业气象指标是开展作物干旱监测、预警和评估的科学依据,其适用性关系到农业气象业务质量和防灾减灾效果。应用东北地区31个春玉米代表站1981 2012年逐日气象资料、土壤湿度资料、玉米生长发育观测资料及产量资料,对东北地区春玉米不同生育阶段土壤相对湿度和水分亏缺指数干旱等级指标进行应用效果检验,比较适用性差异,并利用黑龙江省2013—2016年的资料进行干旱实例分析。结果表明,土壤湿度和水分亏缺指数干旱等级指标均适用于东北区域春玉米不同生长时段干旱识别,且有较好的一致性,两套指标判定的春玉米干旱等级完全相同的占75%左右,相同和基本相同的占95%左右。两套指标对历史和近年玉米干旱事件的判识效果都较好,土壤湿度指标和水分亏缺指数的干旱识别正确率分别在80%和75%以上,土壤湿度指标判定效果更好。两套指标在玉米生育前、中期适宜性略好于后期,在东北三省的应用效果要略好于内蒙古东部,部分干旱年份水分亏缺指数判定的灾情等级偏高,因此,当两套指标判定结果存在差异时,应以土壤相对湿度指标判定结果为准。
[Abstract]:Crop drought grade agrometeorological indicators are the scientific basis for crop drought monitoring, early warning and assessment. Its applicability is related to the operational quality of agrometeorology and the effect of disaster prevention and mitigation. The daily meteorological data, soil moisture data, corn growth and development observation data and yield data of 31 spring maize representative stations in Northeast China in 1981 and 2012 are used. Soil relative humidity and water deficit index drought grade indexes in different growing stages of spring maize in Northeast China were tested, and the applicability of drought index was compared. The drought data of Heilongjiang Province from 2013 to 2016 were used to analyze the drought cases. The results showed that: 1. The drought grade indexes of soil moisture and water deficit index are suitable for drought identification of spring maize in different growing periods in Northeast China, and there is good consistency. The drought grade of spring maize determined by two sets of indexes is about 75%. About 95% of them were the same and basically the same. The recognition effect of the two sets of indexes on maize drought events in history and recent years was better. The correct rate of drought recognition of soil moisture index and water deficit index were over 80% and 75%, respectively. The effect of soil moisture index was better than that of eastern Inner Mongolia. Before the growth of maize, the medium term suitability of the two indexes was slightly better than that of the later stage, and the application effect in the three northeast provinces was slightly better than that in the eastern part of Inner Mongolia, and in some dry years, the disaster grade was higher than that of water deficit index. Therefore, when the results of the two sets of indicators are different, the results should be determined by the index of soil relative humidity.
【作者单位】：黑龙江省气象科学研究所;吉林省气象台;中国气象局沈阳大气环境研究所;宁夏回族自治区气象科学研究所;内蒙古自治区气象服务中心;黑龙江省气象数据中心;
【基金】：中国气象局气候变化专项(CCSF201606);中国气象局核心业务发展专项(CMAHX20160205) 黑龙江省气象局重点项目(HQZD2015002)共同资助
【分类号】：S423;S513

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