江苏省化肥施用强度变化驱动因子分解及其影响因素分析

发布时间：2018-03-24 14:43

本文选题：化肥施用强度　切入点：驱动因子　出处：《华中农业大学学报(社会科学版)》2017年04期

【摘要】：基于江苏2006-2014年13市77地区的面板数据,采用完全因素分解模型对化肥施用强度影响因素进行分析。结果表明:江苏化肥施用强度下降主要由效率变动驱动,其累计驱动效应达127.85%,种植结构调整反而制约了化肥施用强度下降,累计驱动效应为-27.85%;效率变化驱动的化肥施用强度随着经济水平的提高呈明显下降趋势,江苏化肥施用强度正处于"倒U型"的下降治理阶段;化肥施用强度下降的主要影响因素是农业科技进步、适度规模经营、新型农业经营主体培育及生物有机肥替代。因此,应坚定不移地推进技术推广、土地流转、剩余劳动力转移及粪便资源化利用。
[Abstract]:Based on the panel data of 77 areas in 13 cities of Jiangsu province from 2006 to 2014, the factors influencing the intensity of chemical fertilizer application were analyzed by using the complete factor decomposition model. The results showed that the decrease of chemical fertilizer application intensity in Jiangsu was mainly driven by the change of efficiency. The cumulative driving effect was 127.85, and the adjustment of planting structure restricted the decrease of fertilizer application intensity, and the cumulative driving effect was -27.85. The intensity of fertilizer application driven by the change of efficiency decreased obviously with the increase of economic level. The intensity of chemical fertilizer application in Jiangsu Province is in the stage of "inverted U type", and the main influencing factors are the progress of agricultural science and technology, the moderate scale management, the cultivation of new agricultural management main body and the substitution of biological organic fertilizer. We should unswervingly promote technology promotion, land transfer, surplus labor transfer and the utilization of feces.
【作者单位】：江苏省农业科学院农业经济与发展研究所;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金项目“环境目标约束下农户技术选择:个体行为与制度安排”(71273147) 中国博士后科学基金项目“环境承载力、农业结构调整与化肥减量研究”(2015M581756) 江苏省博士后科学基金项目“江苏化肥减量化研究”(1601206C) 学院基本科研业务专项“江苏主要粮食作物化学投入品减量化研究”(ZX(16)4002)
【分类号】：S143

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