近45 a来我国农业气象灾害变化特征及其对粮食产量的影响

发布时间：2018-03-30 13:18

本文选题：气象灾害　切入点：偏相关　出处：《长江流域资源与环境》2017年10期

【摘要】：利用农业部种植业管理司发布的数据,针对近45 a(1970~2014年)来我国农业气象灾害变化特征及其对粮食产量影响的问题,采用数理统计和偏相关分析方法进行了研究。结果表明:黑龙江、山东和河南是受灾和成灾面积最大的省份;山西和内蒙古是受灾率和成灾率最高的两个省份;旱灾是我国主要的气象灾害,洪涝灾害波动明显,沿海地区台风灾害持续上升;东北地区旱灾比重增加,低温灾害有所减轻;华东地区洪涝、低温和台风灾害比重增加;华北地区低温和风雹呈现上升趋势;华南地区台风灾害增长显著;西北地区风雹和低温增加;西南地区旱灾和洪涝走势相反;中南地区旱灾减轻,洪涝加重;气象灾害直接影响到粮食总产量,干旱和洪涝灾害影响尤为明显;气象灾害与粮食产量的关系呈现出先上升后下降趋势。
[Abstract]:Based on the data released by the Department of crop Industry Management of the Ministry of Agriculture, the change characteristics of agrometeorological disasters and their impact on grain production in China are discussed in the recent 45 years of the year 1970-2014. The results show that Heilongjiang, Shandong and Henan are the most affected and affected provinces, and Shanxi and Inner Mongolia are the two provinces with the highest disaster rate. Drought is the main meteorological disaster in China, the flood disaster fluctuates obviously, the typhoon disaster increases continuously in coastal area, the proportion of drought in Northeast area increases, the low temperature disaster is alleviated, the flood in East China increases, the proportion of low temperature and typhoon disaster increases. The trend of low temperature and wind hail in North China is rising, the typhoon disaster in South China is increasing significantly, the wind hail and low temperature are increasing in Northwest China, the trend of drought and flood is opposite in Southwest China, the drought in Central and South China is reduced, and the flood and waterlogging are aggravated. Meteorological disasters directly affect the total grain yield, especially drought and flood disasters, and the relationship between meteorological disasters and grain production shows a trend of first rising and then decreasing.
【作者单位】：南京信息工程大学科学技术史研究院;南京信息工程大学经济管理学院;
【基金】：国家自然基金(71503134;91546117&71401078) 国家社科基金重大项目(16ZDA047) 江苏省高校哲社项目(2016SJB630016) 南京信息工程大学科学技术史研究院开放课题(2017KJSKT005) 江苏省高校优势学科平台项目~~
【分类号】：S42

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