基于开花期地域差异的中稻高温热害天气指数保险设计

发布时间：2018-04-03 14:51

本文选题：天气指数保险　切入点：高温热害　出处：《中国农业气象》2017年10期

【摘要】：高温热害是湖北省中稻单产的主要限制因子,高温热害天气指数保险的设计与推广,对于转移农业气象灾害风险,降低农民损失具有重大意义。在开顶式生长室(open-top chamber,OTC)的控制下,以中稻品种"广两优香66"为试材,模拟开花灌浆期高温热害,建立了高温热害减产模型,并用大田调查资料作对比,筛选最优投保集中时段。基于10个试点县(市)1981-2016年每年7月16日-8月31日日最高气温观测资料,采用Weibull分布模型,构建分时段的高温热害风险分布模型。综合减产率模型和概率分布模型,厘定了不同免赔率下,以县(市)为单位的,多个投保时期的中稻高温热害天气指数保险的纯费率,为被保险人提供多种投保方案。结果表明:中稻开花灌浆期高温热害保险的最优投保时间为开花始期后20d,开花始期为7月下旬时费率最高,随着开花期的延迟,费率逐渐降低。纯费率的区域差异较大,咸安、赤壁、浠水、麻城等热害高风险区费率较高,襄阳、随州等低风险区费率较低。
[Abstract]:High temperature heat damage is the main limiting factor of middle rice yield in Hubei province. The design and popularization of weather index insurance for high temperature heat damage is of great significance for transferring the risk of agrometeorological disasters and reducing farmers' losses.Under the control of open-top chamberberberberberberberberberberberberberberberberberberberberberberberberberberberberberberberberberberberberberberberberberberberberberberberberberberberberberberberberberberberberberberberberberberberanOTCC( OTC6), a model of high temperature heat damage reduction was established by simulating high temperature heat damage during flowering and filling stage with Guang Liang youBased on the maximum temperature observation data from July 16 to August 31 of each year in 10 pilot counties (cities), the Weibull distribution model is used to construct the risk distribution model of high temperature damage in different periods.Based on the model of yield reduction rate and probability distribution model, the pure rate of medium rice high temperature heat damage weather index insurance in different counties (cities) for several insured periods is determined, which provides various insurance schemes for the insured.The results showed that the optimal insurance time of high temperature heat damage insurance in flowering and filling stage of middle rice was 20 days after flowering, and the rate was the highest in late July at the beginning of flowering. With the delay of flowering period, the rate decreased gradually.The rate of pure rate is higher in the high risk areas of heat hazard such as Xian'an, Chibi, Xishui and Macheng, while in Xiangyang, Suizhou and other low risk areas the rates are lower.
【作者单位】：湖北省荆州农业气象试验站;武汉区域气候中心;随州市气象局;中国人民财产保险股份有限公司湖北省分公司;
【基金】：公益性行业(气象)科研专项(GYHY201306035) 中国人保财险湖北省分公司委托项目(20160921CI000001)
【分类号】：F842.66;S42;S511

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