江西省近56年农业气象灾害时空分布特征

发布时间：2018-04-04 13:19

本文选题：江西省　切入点：农业气象灾害　出处：《江苏农业科学》2017年22期

【摘要】：基于江西省83个数据完整的气象站1960—2015年间降水、气温的逐日观测资料,选取持续性极端天气日数表征农业气象灾害指标,利用趋势分析、Mann-Kenddall检验方法、Arcgis空间插值和小波分析方法,统计分析江西省近56年农业气象灾害的时间列变化、空间分布和震荡周期。结果表明,近56年来江西省持续暴雨、高温呈增加的趋势,在突变年份(1990、2005年)后波动性增加,年内持续日数增大。灾害严重区域明显增加,以赣东南为中心向西南方向辐射递减,这2种灾害应给予足够的关注。存在以22年时间尺度为中心的第一主周期震荡,可预测未来3~5年内为洪涝灾害多发期和高温热害的少发期;持续低温和干旱整体呈递减趋势,2002年后干旱日数有增加的趋势,波动性同洪涝和高温。后25年低温灾害严重区域明显收缩,北多南少,作物种植北界北移,以48、21年为主周期。干旱灾害以赣南地区为重心,呈现出扩大的趋势,最大干旱日数由80 d增至88 d。突变年份较多,震荡周以14、10、2年为主。未来3~5年内为低温灾害和干旱灾害的少发期。总体来看,江西省农业气象灾害的发生在新世纪有增加的趋势,特别是高温灾害和洪涝灾害有明显扩大的迹象。本研究对江西省56年来4种农业气象灾害的时空分布特征进行分析,可以为江西省农业发展方向、防灾减灾等提供科学依据。
[Abstract]:Based on the daily observation data of precipitation and temperature in 83 meteorological stations in Jiangxi Province from 1960 to 2015, the number of days of continuous extreme weather was selected to represent the index of agrometeorological disasters.Using the method of Arcgis spatial interpolation and wavelet analysis, the time series change, spatial distribution and oscillation period of agrometeorological disasters in Jiangxi Province in recent 56 years are analyzed by using Mann-Kenddall test method.The results show that during the past 56 years, the torrential rain in Jiangxi Province has a tendency of increasing high temperature. After the sudden change year (1990, 2005), the volatility increases and the number of days in the year increases.The serious area of disaster increases obviously, and the radiation decreases from southeast Jiangxi to southwest, so we should pay enough attention to these two kinds of disasters.There is the first main cycle oscillation with 22 years time scale as the center, which can predict that the flood and waterlogging disaster will occur frequently in the coming 3 ~ 5 years and the low temperature and drought will decrease gradually, and the number of drought days will increase after 2002.Volatility is associated with floods and high temperatures.In the latter 25 years, the severe area of low temperature disaster obviously shrank, the north was more than the south, and the northern boundary of crop cultivation moved northward, and the period of 4821 years was the main period.The drought disaster is focused on Gannan area, showing an expanding trend, the maximum drought days increased from 80 days to 88 days.The mutation years were more, the shock weeks were 1410 and 2 years.In the next 3 ~ 5 years, there will be less occurrence of low temperature and drought disasters.In general, the occurrence of agrometeorological disasters in Jiangxi Province has an increasing trend in the new century, especially the high temperature disasters and flood disasters have obvious signs of expansion.This study analyzed the spatial and temporal distribution characteristics of 4 kinds of agrometeorological disasters in Jiangxi Province in the past 56 years, which can provide scientific basis for agricultural development direction, disaster prevention and mitigation in Jiangxi Province.
【作者单位】：南京信息工程大学应用气象学院;江西省气象服务中心;
【基金】：江苏省科技支撑项目(编号:BE2015693)
【分类号】：S42

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