广丰区土地利用变化空间模拟及其对基本农田划定影响分析

发布时间：2018-04-15 04:26

本文选题：基本农田划定 + CLUE-S模型　；参考：《江西农业大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：基本农田作为粮食生产主要来源,是关系国计民生的重要保障,保护基本农田的工作刻不容缓。随着我国人口数量增加,社会经济环境迅速变化,城市无序扩张,耕地非农化问题严重,用地开发与耕地保护矛盾尖锐,因此探索如何科学、合理的划定基本农田,保护好我们的“保命田”,成为土地科学研究的一个重点与热点。广丰区作为上饶的经济强县,2015年撤县改区后,处于工业化、城镇化发展的关键时期,对城市发展用地有着强烈的刚性需求,在此背景下,科学开展切实可行的基本农田划定工作,显得尤为重要。论文研究目的是确保基本农田数量、质量的同时,实现基本农田的科学部署。从数量方面看,研究区基本农田需求量以上级下达基本农田保护指标为依据;质量方面,以广丰区2010年基本农田保护图层为底图,剔除由于历史原因导致图、实地不一致的基本农田中的非耕地和25°以上的陡坡耕地,参考农用地分等成果将优质耕地优先划入基本农田;布局方面,引入CLUE-S模型预测广丰区未来土地利用变化趋势,规避基本农田因土地利用变化,尤其是非农建设、农业结构调整等影响,从而实现基本农田布局的稳定性,最后根据划定结果,对其连片性进行优化调整,与规划基本农田进行对比分析。本研究主要结论如下:(1)广丰区基本农田划定评价体系包含耕地坡度、耕地质量、土地利用空间变化对基本农田影响、耕地连片程度。其中土地利用空间变化预测引入CLUE-S模型与Markov模型,从数量与空间层次对区域土地空间变化趋势进行预测。选取人口密度、高程、坡向、坡度、距铁路的距离等九个驱动因子对广丰区土地利用变化进行分析。模拟结果表明在80m*80m的空间模拟尺度下,CLUE-S模型能够较好预测广丰区土地利用变化,Kappa值达到97.19%。(2)通过模拟可知耕地有向建设用地、林地、其他土地转移的趋势,尤其向建设用地转移较为明显,主要体现在中心城区附近,并有沿交通干线发展的趋势。随着广丰区城镇化与经济建设发展进程的加快,建设用地规模逐年扩张,与耕地保护之间矛盾日益凸显。将土地利用变化纳入影响基本农田布局评价体系具有现实意义。(3)在保障基本农田的数量和质量基础上,以乡镇为单位对划定前后基本农田的连片性进行评价。最终划定广丰区基本农田面积27325.70hm2,满足广丰区下达基本农田保护指标。与规划成果对比,质量等别得到提高,图斑连片性得到改善,提高了基本农田的稳定性,更有利于实现规模农业。因此以土地利用变化空间模拟为基础,充分考虑耕地数量、质量、连片性的基本农田划定方法是可取的。
[Abstract]:As the main source of grain production, basic farmland is an important guarantee of national economy and people's livelihood, so it is urgent to protect basic farmland.With the increase of population, the rapid change of social and economic environment, the sprawl of cities, the serious problem of cultivated land non-agriculture, the sharp contradiction between land development and cultivated land protection, we explore how to define the basic farmland scientifically and reasonably.Protect our "life-saving field", become a focus and hot spot of land science research.As a strong economic county in Shangrao, Guangfeng District is in a critical period of industrialization and urbanization after it was withdrawn from county reform area in 2015. Under this background, there is a strong rigid demand for urban development land.It is very important to carry out feasible basic farmland delineation work scientifically.The purpose of this paper is to ensure the scientific deployment of basic farmland while ensuring the quantity and quality of basic farmland.In terms of quantity, the basic farmland demand in the research area is based on the basic farmland protection index issued by the higher authorities. In terms of quality, the basic farmland protection map layer of Guangfeng District in 2010 is taken as the base map, and the map caused by historical reasons is eliminated.The non-cultivated land and steep slope cultivated land above 25 掳in the inconsistent basic farmland on the ground are assigned priority to the basic farmland with reference to the results of agricultural land classification. In the aspect of layout, the CLUE-S model is introduced to predict the trend of land use change in Guangfeng district in the future.To avoid the influence of land use change, especially non-agricultural construction, agricultural structure adjustment and so on, to realize the stability of basic farmland layout, and to optimize and adjust its continuity according to the result of demarcation.Compared with the planning of basic farmland.The main conclusions of this study are as follows: (1) the evaluation system of basic farmland delineation and evaluation in Guangfeng District includes the slope of cultivated land, the quality of cultivated land, the influence of land use space change on basic farmland, and the degree of continuous farmland.CLUE-S model and Markov model are introduced to predict the spatial change of land use, and the trend of regional land spatial change is forecasted from the aspect of quantity and space.Nine driving factors, such as population density, elevation, slope direction, slope and distance from railway, were selected to analyze land use change in Guangfeng area.The simulation results show that the 80m*80m model can better predict the land use change (Kappa) of Guangfeng area to 97.19. 2) through the simulation, we can know the trend of cultivated land, forest land and other land transfer.Especially, the transfer to the construction land is obvious, mainly in the vicinity of the central urban area, and has the trend of development along the main traffic lines.With the rapid development of urbanization and economic construction in Guangfeng District, the scale of construction land is expanding year by year, and the contradiction between construction land and cultivated land protection is becoming increasingly prominent.It is of practical significance to bring the land use change into the evaluation system of the basic farmland layout. On the basis of guaranteeing the quantity and quality of the basic farmland, this paper evaluates the continuity of the basic farmland before and after the demarcation with the township as the unit.Finally, the basic farmland area of Guangfeng district was determined at 27325.70 hm2, which met the basic farmland protection index in Guangfeng district.Compared with the planned results, the quality is improved and the patchy property is improved, which improves the stability of the basic farmland and is more conducive to the realization of large-scale agriculture.Therefore, based on the spatial simulation of land use change, it is advisable to give full consideration to the quantity, quality and continuity of cultivated land.
【学位授予单位】：江西农业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F323.211

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