中国西南地区石漠化对玉米旱灾风险的影响

发布时间：2018-04-16 13:10

本文选题：干旱 + 遥感　；参考：《农业工程学报》2017年23期

【摘要】：为做好喀斯特地区农业旱灾风险防范,揭示石漠化程度对作物旱灾风险的影响机制。该文基于灾害系统理论,引入基于物理过程的农作物模型EPIC(erosion productivity impact calculator),考虑西南喀斯特地貌背景,以水分胁迫累加值作为致灾因子,与玉米产量损失进行脆弱性曲线模拟,基于此开展不同石漠化程度区玉米旱灾产量的致灾和成灾损失风险评估。结果显示,中国西南喀斯特地区玉米受旱减产的风险呈现从西北到东南增加的趋势。在4种风险水平(2、5、10、20年一遇)下,面积占比最大的产量损失率主要集中分布在0.4~0.5区间内,这主要由地形地势、降水差异和承灾体的脆弱性所共同决定的;受石漠化影响,土层厚度为40 cm时,4种风险水平对应的减产率分别为5.8%、6.1%、7.8%、8.2%;该研究可以为中国第三大玉米主产区-西南山地玉米区的农业灾害预警和保障国家粮食安全提供重要的科学依据和技术支持。
[Abstract]:In order to prevent agricultural drought risk in karst area, the influence mechanism of rock desertification degree on crop drought risk is revealed.Based on the theory of disaster system, a physical process based crop model, EPIC(erosion productivity impact calculus, was introduced in this paper. Considering the landscape background of southwest karst, the cumulative value of water stress was taken as the disaster causing factor, and the vulnerability curve of maize yield loss was simulated.Based on this, the risk assessment of disaster and disaster loss of maize drought yield in different rocky desertification area was carried out.The results showed that the risk of maize drought reduction increased from northwest to southeast of China.Under four risk levels, the yield loss rate, which accounts for the largest proportion of area, is mainly distributed in the range of 0.4 ~ 0.5, which is mainly determined by topography, difference in precipitation and vulnerability of disaster bearing bodies, and is affected by rocky desertification.When the thickness of the soil layer is 40 cm, the reduction rate corresponding to the four risk levels is 5.86.1and 7.88.2.This study can provide an important science for agricultural disaster early warning and ensuring national food security in the third largest corn producing area in China, the southwest mountain corn region.Academic basis and technical support.
【作者单位】：民政部国家减灾中心;中国科学院遥感与数字地球研究所中国科学院数字地球重点实验室;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金项目“极端气候事件对我国旱灾适应性的影响机制研究”(41471428);国家自然科学基金项目“我国华北地区土壤水效用对玉米旱灾风险的影响机制研究”(41671505) 国家重点研发计划“中高纬度湿地系统对气候变化的响应研究”(2016YFA0602302,2016YFB0502502) 中国气象局兰州干旱气象研究所资助项目“基于信息图谱的因旱需救助人口动态估算研究”(IAM201609)
【分类号】：S423;S513

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