黑龙江省气候生产潜力时空演变特征研究

发布时间：2018-04-17 19:57

本文选题：气候生产潜力 + 时空演变　；参考：《生态环境学报》2017年10期

【摘要】：气候生产潜力的时空变化规律不仅反映各气象因子与气候生产潜力之间的配合协调程度,还能对粮食生产决策起到决定性的指导意义。基于Thornthwaite Memorial模型估算了黑龙江省1986—2015年作物生育期内的气候生产潜力,分析了气候生产潜力与平均温度和降水量之间的关系。采用Morlet小波分析方法,对黑龙江省作物生育期内的气候生产潜力进行了多时间尺度特征分析和预测,并通过GIS软件拟合分析了黑龙江省作物生育期内气候生产潜力的空间变化特征。结果表明,1986—2015年作物生育期内黑龙江省气候生产潜力呈缓慢的降低趋势,变化趋势不显著,在7 012.143~11 680.771 kg·hm~(-2)·a~(-1)之间变化,平均值为9 390.362 kg·hm~(-2)·a~(-1);1986—2015年生育期内黑龙江省气候生产潜力具有显著的多时间尺度特征,存在7 a和10 a的主周期以及16 a的变化周期;拟合可知2016—2018年的气候生产潜力逐年递减,但均高于年平均值;黑龙江省生育期内气候生产潜力空间分布差异显著,以巴彦县为中心,气候生产潜力向四周逐渐递减,体现出较为明显的经度地带性,大部分地区热量条件相对充足,降水量是影响黑龙江省作物气候生产潜力的主要限制因子。
[Abstract]:The temporal and spatial variation of climatic production potential not only reflects the degree of coordination between meteorological factors and climatic production potential, but also plays a decisive guiding role in grain production decision-making.Based on the Thornthwaite Memorial model, the climatic production potential during crop growth period from 1986 to 2015 in Heilongjiang Province was estimated, and the relationship between climate production potential and average temperature and precipitation was analyzed.Using Morlet wavelet analysis method, the climatic potential during crop growth period in Heilongjiang Province was analyzed and forecasted in multiple time scales.The spatial variation characteristics of climatic productive potential during crop growth period in Heilongjiang Province were analyzed by GIS software fitting.The results showed that the climatic production potential of Heilongjiang Province was decreasing slowly during the crop growth period from 1986 to 2015, but the change trend was not significant, between 7 012.143 (11 680.771 kg / hm ~ (-2)) a ~ (-1)).The average value is 9 390.362 kg / hm ~ (-2) / a ~ (1) A ~ (1) ~ (1) ~ (1) ~ (1) ~ (- 1) climatic potential in Heilongjiang Province during the growth period 1986-2015, which has the characteristics of multiple time scales, with the main periods of 7 years and 10 years and the change cycles of 16 years.The fitting results show that the climatic production potential of 2016-2018 decreases year by year, but it is higher than the annual average value, and the spatial distribution of climatic production potential in Heilongjiang Province is significant during the growth period, with Bayan County as the center, the climatic production potential gradually decreases to four weeks.There are obvious longitude zonation and sufficient heat condition in most areas. Precipitation is the main limiting factor of crop climate production potential in Heilongjiang Province.
【作者单位】：黑龙江省农业科学院农村能源研究所;
【基金】：中国清洁发展机制基金项目(2014101) 国家“十三五”重点研发计划课题(2016YFD0501403) 国家科技支撑计划课题(2015BAD21B004) 黑龙江省农业科学院院级课题(2017ZC07)
【分类号】：S162

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