基于水分盈亏指数的四川省小麦生育期干旱风险评估

发布时间：2018-04-30 18:39

本文选题：干旱风险评估 + 小麦生育期　；参考：《自然灾害学报》2017年04期

【摘要】：利用四川省135个气象台站1961~2014年逐日气象资料和29个农业气象观测站的小麦观测资料,选取水分盈亏指数作为干旱评估指标,分析了54年来四川小麦7大种植区不同生育期的各级干旱时空变化特征及其风险分布情况。结果表明:小麦各生育期发生干旱站均次数以川西南山地最多,其多年平均值达0.9以上,可谓十年九旱。各区干旱站均次数的时间变化趋势不明显。生育阶段以孕穗-抽穗期发生干旱频率较高,其次是拔节-孕穗期,最低的是抽穗-乳熟期。从干旱频率空间分布特征来看,川西南山地是发生轻旱频率最高的地区,川西高原中旱和重旱的发生频率要高于其它各区,盆地各区域中只有盆中和盆西部分区域发生干旱频率相对较高。小麦干旱风险分布情况为川西南山地以及川西高原的南部区域是干旱高风险区,大部分区域可达极重风险,盆地以盆中为干旱风险高发区。
[Abstract]:Based on the daily meteorological data from 135 meteorological stations in Sichuan Province from 1961 to 2014 and the wheat observation data from 29 agrometeorological observatories, the water profit and loss index is selected as the drought assessment index. The temporal and spatial variation characteristics of drought and their risk distribution in different growth stages of wheat growing areas in Sichuan Province in the past 54 years were analyzed. The results showed that the average number of drought occurred in every growing period of wheat was the most in the southwest of Sichuan, and its annual average value was more than 0.9, which could be described as nine drought in ten years. The time variation trend of the average number of drought stations is not obvious. The frequency of drought at booting-heading stage was higher, followed by jointing-booting stage, and the lowest was heading-milking stage. According to the spatial distribution characteristics of drought frequency, the frequency of drought and severe drought in western Sichuan Plateau is higher than that in other regions. In each region of the basin, the frequency of drought is relatively high only in the middle of basin and in the western part of basin. The distribution of drought risk of wheat is that the south mountain land of western Sichuan and the southern region of western Sichuan plateau are high risk areas of drought, most of the regions can reach very heavy risk, and the basin is the high risk area of drought risk.
【作者单位】：中国气象局成都高原气象研究所/高原与盆地暴雨旱涝灾害四川省重点实验室;四川省农业气象中心;Tetra
【基金】：中国气象局西南区域重大科研业务项目(2014-8) 四川农田土壤墒情监测及预报技术的示范应用(15010107) 高原大气与环境四川省重点实验室开放课题(PAEKL-2017-C4)~~
【分类号】：S423;S512.1

【相似文献】