基于Logistic模型的江西省崩岗侵蚀风险评估

发布时间：2018-05-01 13:03

  本文选题：崩岗侵蚀 + 风险评估　； 参考：《中国水土保持科学》2017年06期

【摘要】：崩岗侵蚀是我国南方水土流失的一种特殊类型,关于崩岗的风险评估方面的研究较少。选择江西省作为研究区域,通过相关因子分析,筛选风险评估指标,利用Logistic模型计算崩岗发生风险,在此基础上采用专家打分法,计算崩岗危害风险,将崩岗发生风险与崩岗危害风险叠加,即可得到崩岗侵蚀风险,以此探讨区域尺度崩岗侵蚀风险评估的可行性。结果显示,江西省南部和西部崩岗发生风险较高,东部、北部和中部相对较低。全省崩岗危害风险总体较轻微,相对较高的危害风险呈零星分布。综合发生风险和危害风险后,江西省崩岗侵蚀以低中风险为主,占全省总面积的95%;其中,较低及以下风险占全省总面积的68%。较低及以下风险主要分布鄱阳湖周边区域,风险防控措施应以预防保护为主。中风险及以上风险主要分布在江西省南部和西部,宜采取预防保护与综合治理并重的风险防控措施。研究表明,Logistic模型对崩岗侵蚀发生风险评估是可行的。
[Abstract]:Collapse erosion is a special type of soil erosion in southern China. Jiangxi Province is selected as the research area. The risk assessment index is screened through the relevant factor analysis, and the risk of collapse is calculated by using Logistic model. On the basis of this, the risk of collapse is calculated by using the expert scoring method. The risk of collapse erosion can be obtained by superposing the risk of collapse and the hazard of collapse, and the feasibility of risk assessment of collapse erosion on regional scale can be discussed. The results showed that the risk of collapse occurred in the south and west of Jiangxi Province was higher than that in the east, north and middle of Jiangxi Province. The risk of collapse in the whole province is relatively slight, and the relatively high risk is scattered. After the comprehensive occurrence of risk and hazard risk, the main risk of collapse erosion in Jiangxi Province is low and medium risk, which accounts for 95% of the total area of the province, among which, the lower risk and the following risk account for 68% of the total area of the province. The lower and lower risks are mainly distributed in the area around Poyang Lake, and the risk prevention and control measures should be mainly prevention and protection. The middle risk and the above risk are mainly distributed in the south and west of Jiangxi Province. The results show that logistic model is feasible for risk assessment of collapse erosion.
【作者单位】： 长江科学院水土保持研究所;
【基金】：水利部公益性行业科研专项项目“崩岗侵蚀风险评估及分类防控关键技术研究”(201501047) 中央级公益性科研院所基本科研业务费“南方崩岗发育风险评估研究”(CKSF2016262/TB)
【分类号】：S157.1
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本文编号：1829457