我国粮食主产区化肥施用量增长的驱动因素分解

发布时间：2018-05-01 17:15

本文选题：粮食主产区 + 化肥施用量　；参考：《农业现代化研究》2017年04期

【摘要】：分析粮食主产区化肥施用量变动特征及其驱动因素,有助于在确保粮食等主要农产品有效供给的基础上实现化肥减量目标。基于13个粮食主产省份2005-2015年的数据,采用因素分解法对粮食主产区化肥施用量增长的驱动因素进行了分解。结果表明,化肥施用强度提高是粮食主产区化肥施用量增长的主因,其次是播种面积增加,种植结构调整的贡献较小。但2010年以来,化肥施用强度提高的贡献在下降,种植结构调整的贡献在上升。分作物看,粮食作物施用强度提高和播种面积增加是粮食主产区化肥施用量增长的主要驱动因素,其次是园艺作物施用强度提高和播种面积增加,传统经济作物的化肥施用量增长很少。分区域看,北方主产区化肥施用量增长的主要驱动因素是施用强度提高,其次是播种面积增加;南方主产区播种面积增加和施用强度提高的累计贡献量大致相当。由此提出,促进粮食主产区化肥减量的重点是提高化肥利用效率,同时积极推广节肥型品种,促进园艺作物有机肥替代化肥。
[Abstract]:It is helpful to realize the chemical fertilizer reduction target on the basis of ensuring the effective supply of grain and other main agricultural products by analyzing the changing characteristics and driving factors of fertilizer application in the main grain producing areas. Based on the data of 13 major grain producing provinces from 2005 to 2015, the factor decomposition method was used to decompose the driving factors of fertilizer application growth in the main grain producing areas. The results showed that the increase of fertilizer application intensity was the main reason for the increase of fertilizer application rate in the main grain producing areas, followed by the increase of sowing area and the small contribution to the adjustment of planting structure. But since 2010, the contribution of increasing fertilizer application intensity is decreasing, and the contribution of planting structure adjustment is increasing. The increase of application intensity and sowing area of grain crops were the main driving factors for the increase of fertilizer application rate in the main grain producing areas, followed by the increase of the application intensity of horticultural crops and the increase of sowing area. The amount of chemical fertilizer used in traditional cash crops has increased very little. In the sub-region, the main driving factor of the increase of fertilizer application rate was the increase of application intensity, followed by the increase of sowing area, and the cumulative contribution amount of the increase of sowing area and application intensity in the main producing area of southern China was about the same. It is suggested that the emphasis of chemical fertilizer reduction in the main grain producing areas is to improve the efficiency of fertilizer utilization and to promote the use of fertilizer saving varieties and to promote the substitution of organic fertilizer for horticultural crops.
【作者单位】：山东农业大学经济管理学院;辽宁大学商学院;沈阳农业大学经济管理学院;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金项目(71303162,71503148) 中国博士后科学基金项目(2016M590647)~~
【分类号】：S143

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