水稻高温热害气象风险区划和评估

发布时间：2018-05-13 22:33

本文选题：水稻 + 高温热害　；参考：《自然灾害学报》2017年05期

【摘要】：为了保障粮食生产安全、提高水稻高温危害的规避和防御能力以及为农业气象指数保险产品的设计提供依据,利用历史气象资料和水稻生育期资料,通过"轻度、中度、重度"不同程度水稻高温热害发生频次差异性的分析,进行了江苏水稻高温热害风险区划。在此基础上,分别从致灾因子和承灾体的角度出发,定义致灾风险、水稻生育阶段覆盖度和气象成灾风险度,对水稻高温热害的发生规律分区域、分等级、分生育期地进行精细化、定量化的分析和评估。经研究发现,各程度高温热害平均发生概率具有"高风险区高低风险区低"的特征。水稻拔节-孕穗和抽穗-乳熟阶段,各程度高温热害最大成灾风险度出现时间基本呈现"高风险区迟低风险区早"的特征。
[Abstract]:In order to ensure the safety of grain production, improve the ability of avoiding and defending the high temperature hazards of rice, and provide the basis for the design of agrometeorological index insurance products, using historical meteorological data and rice growth period data, through "mild, moderate," Based on the analysis of the frequency difference of high temperature heat damage in different degrees of rice in Jiangsu Province, the risk regionalization of high temperature injury in Jiangsu Province was carried out. On this basis, the disaster risk, the coverage of rice in the growing stage and the degree of meteorological disaster risk are defined from the point of view of the disaster causing factors and the disaster bearing bodies, respectively, and the occurrence law of the high temperature heat damage of rice is divided into regions and grades. Fine, quantitative analysis and evaluation were carried out in the growth period. It is found that the average occurrence probability of high temperature heat damage in each degree has the characteristic of "low high risk area in high risk area". In the stages of jointing and booting and heading and milk-ripening, the occurrence time of the maximum risk of high temperature and heat damage in rice showed the characteristic of "early in the late low risk area" in the high risk area.
【作者单位】：江苏省气象服务中心;江苏省常州市气象局;南通市气象局;镇江市气象局;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金(41371412) 江苏省气象局青年基金(Q201607) 公益性行业(气象)科研专项(GYHY201406028)~~
【分类号】：S42;S511

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