干季贵州省东西部区域干湿状况差异分析

发布时间：2018-05-15 13:17

本文选题：冬半年 + 降水量　；参考：《中国农业气象》2016年03期

【摘要】：利用贵州85个气象观测站1960年10月-2010年3月逐日平均气温、降水量、小型蒸发量等资料,选用线性趋势、M-K突变、Morlet小波、积温干燥度指数以及气候干湿指数等方法,对贵州干季(10月-翌年3月)气象干旱进行分析。结果表明:(1)1960-2010年贵州东西部区域干季降水量均无显著线性变化趋势,但有一定的阶段性变化特点;西部区域2002年之后降水量呈极显著减少趋势,其线性变化率为-59.5mm·10a~(-1)(P0.01),东部区域2005年之后降水量呈极显著减少趋势,其线性变化率为-97.7mm·10a~(-1)(P0.01)。21世纪前10a贵州东西部区域气象干旱均呈加重趋势。两区域降水量的突变时段和周期性特征均存在显著性差异(P0.05),西部区域1979年发生由多到少的突变,存在5~7a的周期振荡,东部区域1995年发生由多到少的突变,存在2~3a的周期振荡。(2)近50a西部区域的积温干燥度、气候干湿指数的变化比东部区域明显偏大、偏低,西部区域的气象干旱比东部区域偏重。(3)贵州东西部区域的积温干燥度、气候干湿指数与降水距平百分率线性拟合率均较高,R~2均在0.8以上,但西部区域更高,积温干燥度和气候干湿指数均能真实体现贵州东西部区域干季气象干旱程度。
[Abstract]:Based on the data of daily mean temperature, precipitation and small evaporation from 85 meteorological observatories in Guizhou from October 1960 to March 2010, the methods of linear trend M-K mutation Morlet wavelet, accumulated temperature dryness index and climate dryness index were used. The dry season (October-March of next year) in Guizhou is analyzed. The results show that there is no significant linear change trend of precipitation in the eastern and western regions of Guizhou during 1960-2010, but the precipitation in the western part of Guizhou has a significant decreasing trend after 2002. The linear variation rate is -59.5 mm 10a ~ (-1) ~ (-1) (P ~ (0.01). The precipitation in the eastern region has a very significant decreasing trend after 2005, and its linear variation rate is -97.7mm 10a~(-1)(P0.01).21. The regional meteorological drought in the eastern and western parts of Guizhou is aggravated in the first 10 years before the first ten years of the century. There were significant differences in the abrupt period and periodic characteristics of precipitation between the two regions (P 0.05). In the western region, there was a mutation from more to less in 1979, and there was a periodic oscillation of 5 ~ 7 years in the western region, and a mutation from more to less occurred in the eastern region in 1995. There is a periodic oscillation of 2 ~ (3) a) the accumulated temperature and dryness degree of the western region in the last 50 years, the change of climate dryness index is obviously larger and lower than that in the eastern region, and the meteorological drought in the western region is more severe than that in the eastern region) the accumulated temperature and dryness degree of the eastern and western region of Guizhou is higher than that of the western part of Guizhou. The linear fitting rate of climate dryness index and precipitation anomaly percentage is both higher than 0.8, but the west region is higher. The dry degree of accumulated temperature and climate dryness index can truly reflect the dry season drought degree in the eastern and western regions of Guizhou.
【作者单位】：贵州省六盘水市气象台;贵州省盘县气象局;贵州省气候中心;贵州省黔东南州气象局;贵州省气象信息中心;
【基金】：贵州省科技计划项目(黔科合NY字[2012]3020号) 贵州省科学技术基金项目(黔科合J字[2011]2148号)
【分类号】：S162

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