开封市干旱灾害损失评估研究

发布时间：2018-05-19 16:05

本文选题：开封市 + 冬小麦　；参考：《华北水利水电大学》2016年硕士论文

【摘要】：气候变化极大的改变了中国农业的气候资源,农业生产活动只有与之相适应,才能更加充分合理地利用气候资源,变不利为有利,实现农业生产的可持续性。为确保气候变化背景下中国的粮食安全,提高农业放在减灾能力,及时为各级政府决策提供信息服务,急切需弄清气候变化已经对我国农业的影响,以及未来气候变化可能对我国农业的影响。本文以开封市为研究区,在对开封市的气象变化特征分析的基础上,以典型作物冬小麦夏玉米为重点分析对象,重点探讨了气候变化对冬小麦和夏玉米生产的影响,结合开封市当地的旱灾资料,建立开封市农业干旱灾害风险评估模型,最后,建立了经济灾损评估模型,对开封市冬小麦、夏玉米旱灾损失情况进行评估。通过本研究对开封市旱灾进行科学高效管理提供技术支撑。本文主要包括如下内容:(1)开封市气候变化规律研究。选取代表性的气候特征要素,如降水、温度、日照时数、风速变化、湿润指数等,采用线性倾向估计法、累积距平曲线、滑动t检验法、小波分析、Mann-Kendall法对开封市气象变化趋势、时间序列发生突变的大致时间、突变过程、否通过突变检验、突变区域、周期性变化规律进行分析;结果表明,开封市的年降水量、年风速呈下降的趋势,年积温、年日照时数量呈上升趋势,年降水量存在4个明显的周期变化规律,分别是5a、8a、15a左右和22a时间尺度。年降水量突变开始年为2012年,年积温突变年为1993年,年日照量主要存在2个明显的周期变化规律,分别是5a和22a时间尺度,开封地区地年风速量,突变始年为1974年。开封市近50年中气候以半湿润和半干旱为主,开封市易发生秋、冬季两季干旱极易发生秋冬连旱。(2)建立了基于时间序列的农作物干旱气象灾害损失评估研究。以开封市冬小麦和夏玉米为研究对象,分别利用拉格朗日插值法和直线滑动平均法实现对冬小麦和夏玉米灾害损失的定量评估。结果表明,利用拉格朗日插值法实现灾害损失的定量评估中,冬小麦的实际总产偏高,有的年份甚至出现正增长,但是所对应年份的灾损率偏低。90年代夏玉米单产处于反复变化中,灾害损失量为536 kg/hm2附近波动。利用直线滑动平均法实现灾害损失的定量评估中,冬小麦受气象灾害最小的年份1997为年,其相对气象产量为171.72kg/hm2。夏玉米实际单产在2006-2013年期间夏玉米单产趋势逐年稳定。2006相对气象产量百分率呈直线下降的趋势,但夏玉米单产同时期的却出现趋于稳定的变化,这和夏玉米单产趋势不同,随着农业生产技术水平的提高,气象因素已经不是影响夏玉米产量的主要因素。(3)建立了干旱风险分析评估模型研究。首先,采用信息扩散理论,以粮食减产率和受灾率为旱灾影响指标,建立基于旱灾损失结果的农业旱灾风险分析模型;结果表明,开封市全市农业轻、中、重、特旱的发生频率分别为1.5～2.2年、2.2～7年、9～18年和36年一遇。另外,运用自然灾害风险理论、层次分析法、Fisher最优分割法、GIS技术等,从危险性、暴露性、脆弱性及抗旱能力四方面建立了基于旱灾形成机理的农业干旱灾害风险评估指标体系和评估模型,结果表明,开封市城区和杞县处在旱灾低风险区,尉氏县处在次低风险区,兰考县处在中风险区,开封县和通许县处在高风险区。最后,考虑资料收集的真实性和完整性,并结合开封地区的实际情况,选取评价指标,建立开封地区经济灾损评估模型。结果表明,开封市各区冬小麦经济损失在10-25元/亩之间,开封市各区夏玉米经济损失在15-41元/亩之间。
[Abstract]:The climate change has greatly changed the climate resources of China's agriculture. Only the agricultural production activities can be used to make full and rational use of climate resources, disadvantageous to the advantage, to achieve the sustainability of agricultural production. In order to ensure the food security of China under the background of climate change, improve the ability of agriculture in disaster reduction and timely administration at all levels. It is urgent to understand the influence of climate change on our agriculture and the influence of climate change on our agriculture. This paper takes Kaifeng City as the research area, and on the basis of the analysis of the characteristics of the meteorological change in Kaifeng City, focuses on the analysis of the typical crop winter wheat and summer corn. The influence of climate change on winter wheat and summer maize production, combined with the local drought information in Kaifeng City, established the risk assessment model of agricultural drought disaster in Kaifeng City. Finally, the economic disaster assessment model was established, and the drought disaster of winter wheat and summer maize in Kaifeng City was evaluated. This article mainly provides technical support. This article mainly includes the following contents: (1) study on the climate change law of Kaifeng City. Select representative climatic characteristics, such as precipitation, temperature, sunshine time, wind speed change, wetting index, use linear tendency estimation method, cumulative anomaly curve, sliding t test, wavelet analysis, and Mann-Kendall method to change the weather change of Kaifeng City The general time and the mutation process of the time series are analyzed by the mutation test, the mutation region and the periodic variation law. The results show that the annual precipitation in Kaifeng City has a downward trend of annual wind speed, the annual accumulated temperature, the annual sunshine number is on the rise, and the annual precipitation has 4 obvious periodic variation laws, respectively. It is the time scale of 5A, 8a, 15a and 22a. The annual precipitation catastrophe begins in 2012 and the annual accumulated temperature is in 1993. There are 2 obvious periodic changes in the annual illumination, respectively, the time scale of 5A and 22a, the annual wind speed in Kaifeng area, and the beginning of the catastrophe in 1974. The climate in Kaifeng City is mainly semi humid and semi-arid in the last 50 years. Autumn is easy to occur in Kaifeng and drought and winter in autumn and winter in the two quarter of winter. (2) a study on the loss assessment of drought meteorological disasters based on time series is set up. The winter wheat and summer corn in Kaifeng City are taken as the research object, and the loss of winter wheat and summer corn by the Lagrange interpolation method and the straight line average method are respectively used to determine the loss of winter wheat and summer corn. The results show that in the quantitative assessment of disaster loss by Lagrange interpolation, the actual total yield of winter wheat is high, and some years even appear positive growth, but the disaster loss rate of the corresponding year is low in.90's summer maize yield and the loss amount is fluctuating near 536 kg/hm2. In the quantitative assessment of disaster loss, winter wheat was 1997 year with the smallest meteorological disaster, and its relative meteorological yield was 171.72kg/hm2. summer maize production in 2006-2013 years. The trend of summer maize yield per year was steady and the relative meteorological yield percentage decreased in a straight line, but the summer maize yield in the same period was out of the same period. There is a trend of stable change, which is different from the trend of summer maize yield. With the improvement of agricultural production technology, the meteorological factors are not the main factors affecting the summer maize yield. (3) the drought risk analysis and evaluation model is established. Firstly, the information diffusion theory is adopted to establish the grain yield rate and the disaster rate as the index of drought impact. The agricultural drought risk analysis model based on the drought loss results shows that the frequency of agricultural light, middle, heavy, and special drought in Kaifeng City is 1.5 to 2.2 years, 2.2 to 7 years, 9~18 years and 36 years, respectively. In addition, the use of natural disaster risk theory, analytic hierarchy process, Fisher optimal segmentation method, GIS technology, etc., from risk, exposure, crisp, etc. In the four aspects of weakness and drought resistance, the index system and evaluation model of drought disaster risk assessment based on drought formation mechanism are established. The results show that Kaifeng City and Qixian County are in the low risk area of drought disaster, Weishi county is in the lower risk area, Lankao County is in the middle risk area, Kaifeng County and Tongxu County are in high risk area. Finally, consideration is given. The authenticity and integrity of the data collection were collected, and the evaluation index was selected to establish the economic disaster damage assessment model in Kaifeng area. The results showed that the economic loss of Winter Wheat in Kaifeng City was between 10-25 yuan / mu and the economic losses of Summer Maize in Kaifeng City were 15-41 yuan per mu.
【学位授予单位】：华北水利水电大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：S423

【参考文献】