基于粮食安全约束的山东省耕地安全评价与预警研究

发布时间：2018-05-20 15:20

本文选题：耕地安全 + 能值理论　；参考：《曲阜师范大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：耕地安全对保障粮食安全和维护社会经济稳定及持续发展具有非常重要的意义。山东省是我国重要的农业生产省份,若耕地安全得不到有效改善,全省乃至全国的粮食安全及社会稳定性等将受到威胁。做好耕地安全评价及警情分析工作,才能在此基础上分析影响山东省耕地安全的因素,并采取针对性措施协调人与人、人与自然的关系,保障耕地安全,实现耕地的可持续发展。依据耕地安全的含义,本文以耕地数量安全、质量安全及生态安全作为指标体系的准则层,以涵盖耕地的社会经济功能和自然生态功能的影响因子作为指标体系的指标层,构建了评价指标体系框架,其中自然生态功能在具体指标设置时考虑的是耕地的自然环境条件。粮食数量及质量安全均会对耕地产生约束作用,在具体指标的选取上,由于粮食质量安全指标的数据较难获得,本文则从粮食数量安全约束的角度出发选取、设置基于粮食安全约束的耕地安全评价指标;以能值理论为基础,将包含要素繁杂的耕地环境承载力指标设置为能值指标。本文在突变理论基础上,利用突变级数模型评价了山东省2000-2015年耕地安全,并对2016-2020年的耕地安全警情作了预测。在突变级数模型应用中,为避免突变级数模型对同级指标重要性排序及指标互补性判断的主观性影响,本文利用主成分分析法解决同级指标排序问题,利用相关性分析解决指标互补性判断的问题。山东省耕地安全评价及警情预测的分析结果显示:山东省耕地安全总体呈下降趋势,个别年份出现较大幅度的波动,2000-2015年间的多个年份耕地安全处于重警等级范围内,2016-2020年耕地安全持续下降,并处于巨警等级内。通过分析发现农业灾害、水资源匮乏、农业机械投入等是山东省耕地安全出现较大波动的主要因素。耕地安全涉及政府、企业和个体农户三方利益主体,它们是保障耕地安全体系中的有机组成部分,任何一方的不作为或有损耕地安全的行为都会对耕地安全产生不利影响。本文依据评价结果,从耕地相关利益主体——政府、企业和个体农户三方面出发,提出以下建议:政府应发挥制度保障和政策监控功能,完善产权制度,建立健全农业灾害管理系统,兴修农业水利工程;推动企业发展农业经济,通过建立企业经济信用档案,使耕地污染外部效应内部化;通过组织农机“下乡”活动、专业人员实地指导等措施提高个体农户知识储备,从而科学管理耕地。针对三方主体采取的措施之间形成交错影响,从而形成政府、企业和个体农户保障耕地安全的合力。
[Abstract]:Cultivated land security is of great significance to ensure food security and maintain social and economic stability and sustainable development. Shandong Province is an important agricultural province in China. If the security of cultivated land can not be effectively improved, the food security and social stability of the whole province and even the whole country will be threatened. Only by doing well the evaluation of cultivated land security and the analysis of warning situation, can we analyze the factors that affect the security of cultivated land in Shandong Province, and take targeted measures to coordinate the relationship between people, human beings and nature, so as to ensure the safety of cultivated land. To realize the sustainable development of cultivated land. According to the meaning of cultivated land security, this paper takes the quantity safety, quality safety and ecological security of cultivated land as the criterion layer of the index system, and takes the influencing factors of the social economic function and natural ecological function of the cultivated land as the index layer of the index system. The framework of evaluation index system is constructed, in which the natural ecological function takes into account the natural environment condition of cultivated land. Grain quantity and quality and safety will restrict the cultivated land. Because the data of grain quality and safety index is difficult to obtain, this paper selects the grain quantity safety constraint from the point of view of grain quantity security constraint. Based on the theory of emergy, the environmental carrying capacity index of cultivated land is set up as an emergy index. Based on the catastrophe theory, this paper evaluates the cultivated land security in Shandong Province from 2000 to 2015 by using the catastrophe series model, and forecasts the cultivated land security warning from 2016 to 2020. In the application of the catastrophe series model, in order to avoid the subjective influence of the catastrophe series model on the ranking of the importance and complementarity of the index of the same level, this paper uses the principal component analysis method to solve the problem of ranking the index of the same level. Correlation analysis is used to solve the problem of index complementary judgment. The analysis results of cultivated land safety evaluation and warning forecast in Shandong Province show that the cultivated land security in Shandong Province is in general decreasing. In several years between 2000 and 2015, the cultivated land security was in the range of heavy warning grade, and the cultivated land security continued to decrease in 2016-2020, and was within the huge police grade. Through analysis, it is found that agricultural disasters, water resources shortage and agricultural machinery input are the main factors of the large fluctuation of cultivated land security in Shandong Province. Cultivated land security involves the tripartite interests of the government, enterprises and individual farmers, which are an organic part of the security system of cultivated land. The omission of any party or the behavior that impairs the safety of cultivated land will have a negative impact on the security of cultivated land. Based on the evaluation results, this paper puts forward the following suggestions from three aspects: the government, enterprises and individual farmers: the government should exert the functions of system guarantee and policy monitoring, and perfect the property right system. To establish and improve the agricultural disaster management system, to build agricultural water conservancy projects, to promote enterprises to develop the agricultural economy, to internalize the external effects of cultivated land pollution by establishing enterprise economic credit files, and to organize agricultural machinery "going to the countryside" activities, Professional field guidance and other measures to improve individual farmers knowledge reserves, so as to scientifically manage arable land. The measures taken by the three parties have a staggered influence on each other, thus forming the resultant force among the government, enterprises and individual farmers to ensure the safety of cultivated land.
【学位授予单位】：曲阜师范大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F323.211

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