江苏渍涝灾害影响程度评估

发布时间：2018-05-21 05:48

本文选题：渍涝灾害 + 影响评估　；参考：《江苏农业科学》2016年09期

【摘要】：根据农田水分平衡原理,基于日渍涝灾害指标和权重指数构建渍涝灾害过程指数模型,使用江苏历史农业旱涝灾情、土壤水分自动观测资料确定模型参数,建立渍涝灾害过程等级判别指标体系,系统分析江苏省农田渍涝时空分布规律和气候变化趋势。结果表明,江苏渍涝灾害苏南西南部最多,淮北西北部最少。1年4季中,夏季渍涝灾害渍涝灾害过程占全年40%~60%,渍涝最为频繁也最为严重;春季渍涝灾害南北差异最大,苏南地区年均近2次,淮北西部地区约2年1遇;秋季淮河以南地区发生频率明显轻于春季,但发生程度重于春季,淮北地区发生频率和程度略高于春季;冬季渍涝灾害过程全年最轻,淮北地区无中等程度以上的灾害。54年来,淮河以南地区渍涝灾害过程呈"W"形波动,经历了3个相对高峰期,分别为20世纪60年代前期、20世纪80年代后期至21世纪前期、2010年至今,以20世纪80年代后期至21世纪前期发生最为频繁;淮北地区渍涝灾害过程呈"L"形变化,经历了20世纪60年代初期有1个相对高峰期后,年际变化小,基本在3~5次之间波动。从气候变化趋势看,苏南地区春季渍涝灾害呈现一定的减少趋势,江淮之间夏季渍涝灾害呈现显著的增多趋势,淮河以南地区冬季渍涝灾害呈现显著的增加趋势。
[Abstract]:According to the principle of farmland water balance, based on the daily waterlogging disaster index and weight index, the waterlogging disaster process index model is constructed, and the model parameters are determined by using the drought and flood disaster situation of historical agriculture in Jiangsu Province and the soil moisture automatic observation data. The classification index system of waterlogging process was established, and the temporal and spatial distribution of farmland waterlogging in Jiangsu Province and the climate change trend were systematically analyzed. The results show that the waterlogging disaster is the most in the southwest of Jiangsu Province and the least in the northwestern part of Huaibei. In the four seasons of one year, the waterlogging process in summer accounts for 40% of the whole year, the waterlogging is the most frequent and the most serious, and the difference between the north and the south of the waterlogging disaster in spring is the greatest. The frequency of occurrence in the south of Huaihe River in autumn is lighter than that in spring, but the occurrence degree is more serious than in spring, and the frequency and degree of occurrence in Huaibei area is slightly higher than that in spring. The process of waterlogging in winter is the lightest in the whole year, and there is no disaster of more than moderate degree in Huaibei area. In the past 54 years, the waterlogging disaster process in the south of Huaihe River has fluctuated in the shape of "W" and has experienced three relative peak periods. From the early 1960s to the early 21st century, from the late 1980s to the early 21st century, the most frequent occurred from the late 1980s to the early 21st century, and the waterlogging process in Huaibei area changed in the shape of "L". After a relative peak in the early 1960s, the interannual variation was small and fluctuated between 3 times and 5 times. According to the trend of climate change, the waterlogging disaster in spring in southern Jiangsu shows a certain decreasing trend, the waterlogging disaster in summer between the Yangtze River and Huaihe River shows a significant increase trend, and the waterlogging disaster in winter in the south of Huaihe River shows a significant increase trend.
【作者单位】：江苏省气象服务中心;镇江市气象局;江苏省作物栽培技术指导站;南京信息工程大学应用气象学院;江苏省气象局;
【基金】：中国气象局气象关键技术集成与应用(编号:CMAGJ2014M20) 江苏省科技厅科技支撑计划(编号:BF2014411) 农业部公益性行业计划(编号:201203029)
【分类号】：S422

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