我国“镰刀弯”地区春玉米种植的气候适宜性与调整建议

发布时间：2018-05-30 00:08

本文选题：“镰刀弯”地区 + 春玉米　；参考：《应用生态学报》2016年12期

【摘要】："镰刀弯"地区是典型的旱作农业区和畜牧业发展优势区,生态环境脆弱,涉及我国北方及西南13个省(区).本文根据1981—2010年"镰刀弯"地区650个气象台站的逐日资料和精细化格点数据(1 km×1 km),采用公认的农业气象指标以及目前国际上比较流行的估算作物气候生产潜力的农业生态区划(AEZ)模型,结合卫星遥感监测的土地利用分类信息,对1981—2010年期间该区春玉米种植的气候适宜程度和气候生产潜力进行了定量评估,并结合玉米生物特性及农业气候资源特点,提出合理调整次适宜、不适宜区农业生产结构的科学对策.结果表明:1981—2010年期间,"镰刀弯"北部春玉米种植区气候生产潜力从东向西总体呈现"大-中-较小-小"的分布格局,而南部种植区春玉米气候生产潜力分布无明显规律,总体处于"较小-中"之间;1981—2010年期间,"镰刀弯"北部玉米种植区从东南向西北总体呈现"最适宜-适宜-次适宜-不适宜"的分布格局;而南部种植区从东南向西北总体呈现"不适宜-次适宜-适宜-最适宜"的分布格局.春玉米种植最适宜区分布面积最大(47%),其次为次适宜区(23%)和不适宜区(17%),适宜区最小(13%).其中,玉米次适宜、不适宜种植面积占该地区现有总耕地面积的40%.春玉米最适宜、适宜种植区主要位于东北大部、华北、西北地区东南部,次适宜或不适宜区主要位于内蒙古、新疆北部、甘肃西部和广西等地.根据气候条件分析,建议重点调减西北风沙干旱区、东北冷凉区、北方农牧交错区和西南石漠化区内的气候次适宜区、不适宜区的玉米种植,并且该区域也属于作物气候生产潜力较低的种植区.
[Abstract]:The area of "sickle bend" is a typical dryland agricultural area and a dominant area for animal husbandry development, and the ecological environment is fragile, involving 13 provinces (regions) in the north and southwest of China. Based on the daily data of 650 meteorological stations in "sickle bend" area from 1981 to 2010 and the refined grid data of 1 km 脳 1 km ~ (m ~ (-1), the generally accepted agrometeorological indexes and the current popular estimation of crop climatic production potential in the world are adopted in this paper. AEZ model, Based on the classification information of land use monitored by satellite remote sensing, the climatic suitability and climatic potential of spring maize cultivation in this area from 1981 to 2010 were quantitatively evaluated, and the biological characteristics of maize and the characteristics of agricultural climatic resources were combined. Scientific countermeasures are put forward to adjust the structure of agricultural production reasonably. The results showed that from 1981 to 2010, the climatic production potential of spring maize growing areas in the north of "sickle bend" showed a pattern of "large, medium, smaller and small" from east to west, but the distribution of climatic potential of spring corn in southern planting areas was not regular. In the period of 1981-2010, the distribution pattern of maize growing area in the north of "sickle bend" from southeast to northwest showed "the most suitable-sub-suitable-unsuitable" distribution pattern. But the distribution pattern of "unfit-sub-appropriateness-most suitable" was presented in the southern planting area from southeast to northwest. The distribution area of spring maize is the largest in the most suitable area, the second is in the sub-suitable area, and the second is in the unsuitable area. Among them, maize is less suitable and less suitable for planting than 40% of the total cultivated land in this area. Spring maize is the most suitable, suitable planting area is mainly located in the northeast, North China and the southeast of Northwest China, and the secondary or unsuitable areas are mainly located in Inner Mongolia, northern Xinjiang, western Gansu and Guangxi, and so on. According to the analysis of climatic conditions, it is suggested that the key measures should be taken to reduce maize cultivation in the arid areas of northwest wind-sand, the cold areas in northeast China, the ecotone of agriculture and animal husbandry in the north and the rocky desertification areas in southwest China. And this area also belongs to the crop climate production potential low growing area.
【作者单位】：国家气象中心;中国气象科学研究院灾害天气国家重点实验室;北京师范大学地表过程与资源生态国家重点实验室;
【基金】：公益性行业(气象)科研专项(GYHY201506016,GYHY201106030)资助~~
【分类号】：S513;S162.53

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