主要生育期气候变化对河南省冬小麦生长及产量的影响

发布时间：2018-06-02 09:01

本文选题：冬小麦 + 主要生育期　；参考：《中国生态农业学报》2017年06期

【摘要】：为分析不同生育期气候变化对冬小麦生长及产量的影响,本研究选择河南省30个农业气象观测站1961—2014年气象资料、1981—2014年冬小麦发育期及产量资料,采用数理统计与DSSAT-CERES Wheat模型模拟相结合的方法,分析了冬小麦播种—返青、返青—抽穗、抽穗—成熟3个时期的气候变化特征及其对生育期和产量的影响。结果表明:研究区气候变化的显著特征是播种—返青期日照时数按40.09 h·(10a)~(-1)的速率显著减少(P0.05),返青—抽穗期平均日最高气温和平均日最低气温同时大幅升高。冬小麦幼穗分化随着抽穗前日最低气温的升高按2.9 d·(10a)~(-1)的速率而提前结束,返青前气候变化对后续生育进程有持续影响,气象因子与播种—抽穗期、播种—成熟期持续日数以负相关关系为主。两种分析方法均表明:当前河南麦区播种—返青期气候变化对产量的影响不大,在一定范围内甚至有增产作用,气象因子贡献率平均为0.758;返青—抽穗期气候变化使穗密度和穗粒数平均减少2.74%和3.94%,大于抽穗—成熟期。不同生育期气候变化情景下,冬小麦高产和稳产均受影响,代表站点播种—返青、返青—抽穗、抽穗—成熟期分别平均减产1.6%、6.3%和4.8%,其中播种—返青、抽穗—成熟期影响产量的关键气象因子是日最高气温,而返青—抽穗期是日最低气温。
[Abstract]:In order to analyze the effects of climate change in different growth stages on winter wheat growth and yield, 30 agrometeorological observation stations in Henan Province were selected to study the development period and yield data of winter wheat from 1981 to 2014. Using mathematical statistics and DSSAT-CERES Wheat model simulation, the climate change characteristics and their effects on growth period and yield of winter wheat at three stages of sowing and turning green, returning green to heading and heading to maturity were analyzed. The results showed that the significant characteristics of climate change in the study area were that the rate of sunshine duration in sowing-green period was 40.09 h / 10a ~ (-1) and that the average daily maximum air temperature and mean daily minimum air temperature in the period of returning to green and heading increased significantly at the same time. The young ear differentiation of winter wheat ended earlier with the increase of minimum air temperature at 2.9 d / 10 a ~ (-1). Climate change had a continuous effect on the subsequent growth process before returning to green, and meteorological factors and sowing-heading date. The number of continuous days in sowing-maturity period was mainly negatively correlated. The two analysis methods show that the climate change in the current sowing and green stage in Henan wheat area has little effect on yield, and even has the effect of increasing yield in a certain range. The mean contribution rate of meteorological factors was 0.758, and the mean panicle density and the number of grains per ear decreased by 2.74% and 3.94% respectively, which was larger than that at heading and ripening stage. The high and stable yield of winter wheat were affected by climate change scenarios in different growth stages, representing site seeding-turning green, returning green-heading, heading-maturing stage with an average yield of 1.6% and 4.8%, respectively, among which sowing and turning green were decreased by 1.6% and 4.8%, respectively. The daily maximum temperature was the key meteorological factor affecting yield at heading-maturity stage, while the daily minimum temperature was at heading-heading stage.
【作者单位】：中国气象局河南省农业气象保障与应用技术重点开放实验室;河南省气象科学研究所;
【基金】：中国气象局气候变化专项(CCSF201606)资助~~
【分类号】：S162.53;S512.11

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