气候变化对我国种植业化肥投入的影响

发布时间：2018-06-06 14:15

本文选题：气候变化 + 种植业　；参考：《西部论坛》2017年01期

【摘要】：气候变化不但会对农业产出产生影响,而且还会对农业生产要素投入产生影响。利用我国26个省2001—2012年的面板数据,实证分析气温和降水量变化对我国种植业生产中化肥使用强度的影响,结果表明:从整体看,年平均气温上升有助于降低化肥的使用强度,而年降水量的增加则会提升化肥的使用强度;对于热带亚热带季风气候区,降水量增加、气温上升均会导致化肥使用强度增加;对于温带季风气候区,气温上升会导致化肥使用强度下降,但是降水量增加对化肥使用强度的影响不显著。气候变化对不同气候区农业生产的化肥投入具有不同的影响,因此有关化肥控制的政策有必要考虑气候因素的影响,政策目标的设定也应体现区域差异。
[Abstract]:Climate change will not only have an impact on agricultural output, but also on the input of agricultural factors. Based on the panel data from 2001 to 2012 in 26 provinces of China, this paper empirically analyzes the effect of temperature and precipitation changes on the intensity of fertilizer use in crop production in China. The results show that: from the overall point of view, The increase of annual average temperature will help to reduce the use intensity of chemical fertilizer, but the increase of annual precipitation will increase the intensity of fertilizer use, for the tropical subtropical monsoon climate, the increase of precipitation will lead to the increase of chemical fertilizer use intensity. For temperate monsoon climate, the increase of temperature will lead to the decrease of fertilizer use intensity, but the increase of precipitation has no significant effect on fertilizer use intensity. Climate change has different effects on the input of chemical fertilizer in agricultural production in different climate regions, so it is necessary to consider the influence of climate factors on the policy of chemical fertilizer control, and the setting of policy objectives should also reflect regional differences.
【作者单位】：江西农业大学经济管理学院;
【基金】：国家社会科学基金重大项目(13&ZD160) 国家自然科学基金资助项目(41361007) 赣鄱英才“555”工程人才项目江西省“远航工程”项目
【分类号】：S162;S143

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