寒地水稻障碍型冷害指数构建及应用——以辽宁省为例

发布时间：2018-06-10 13:49

本文选题：水稻 + 障碍型冷害　；参考：《地理科学进展》2017年04期

【摘要】：东北地区水稻障碍型冷害常规评估多采用温度和低温持续天数2个指标,为实现定量化评估和预报,需构建一种基于多因素的综合性障碍型冷害指数。本文基于水稻温度适宜度模型,以温度和低温持续天数为基础,综合考虑三基点温度对水稻生长发育过程的影响,利用辽宁省近50年的日平均温度和水稻发育期数据,构建水稻障碍型冷害指数(RSCDI),并利用该指数对辽宁省水稻障碍型冷害变化规律进行分析和试预报。结果表明:11961-2010年的50年间,有20年发生了局部轻度冷害,14年发生了局部中度冷害,10年发生了局部重度冷害,未发生区域性及大范围冷害。2冷害发生频率最高的年代为1971-1980年,1981-2000年发生频率呈下降趋势,发生频率最低的年代为1991-2000年,2001年以后发生频率上升、且范围呈现扩大趋势;冷害发生范围主要分布在辽宁西部和东北部地区。随着气候变暖,冷害发生频率和范围虽有一定程度的下降,但辽宁省水稻障碍型冷害发生的不确定性仍存在。3利用RSCDI对2011-2014年辽宁省水稻障碍型冷害进行试预报,结果仅建平县2012年和2014年在开花期发生中度冷害,其他地区无冷害发生。
[Abstract]:In order to realize quantitative evaluation and forecast, a comprehensive barrier chilling injury index based on multiple factors should be constructed in the conventional assessment of rice barrier chilling injury in Northeast China. Based on the temperature suitability model of rice, based on temperature and duration of low temperature, and considering the effect of temperature on rice growth and development, the daily average temperature and the data of rice development period in Liaoning Province in the last 50 years are used in this paper. The rice barrier chilling injury index (RSCDIA) was constructed, and the variation law of rice barrier chilling injury in Liaoning Province was analyzed and forecasted by using the index. The results showed that in the 50 years from 1961 to 2010, there were 20 cases of local mild chilling injury, 14 years of local moderate chilling injury and 10 years of local severe chilling injury. The highest frequency of chilling injury occurred in the period 1971-1980 and 1981-2000, the lowest occurred in 1991-2000, and the frequency increased after 2001, and the range showed an expanding trend. The range of chilling damage is mainly distributed in the west and northeast of Liaoning. With the warming of the climate, the frequency and range of chilling damage decreased to some extent, but the uncertainty of rice barrier chilling injury in Liaoning Province still existed .3 using RSCDI to forecast rice barrier chilling injury in Liaoning Province from 2011 to 2014. Results only moderate chilling injury occurred in the flowering period in 2012 and 2014 in Jianping County, but no chilling injury occurred in other areas.
【作者单位】：中国气象局沈阳大气环境研究所;
【基金】：公益性行业(气象)科研专项(GYHY201306036) 辽宁省科学技术厅农业攻关及成果产业化项目(2014210003)~~
【分类号】：S511;S426

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