基于CWSI及干旱稀遇程度的农业干旱指数构建及应用

发布时间：2018-06-12 02:41

本文选题：农业 + 干旱　；参考：《农业工程学报》2017年09期

【摘要】：土壤湿度降低会使作物生长受到水分胁迫,严重时发生农业干旱,对粮食安全造成不利影响,准确识别和有效监测农业干旱具有重要的现实意义。前人研究中,通常仅根据当前水分亏缺程度识别干旱事件,而不考虑其稀遇特征。该文基于蒸散发构建了综合考虑当前水分亏缺程度和干旱事件稀遇程度的农业干旱指数IEDI(integrated evapotranspirationdeficitindex),并基于该指数分析了中国东北3省2000-2014年农业干旱演变规律,探讨了气象要素对农业干旱以及农业干旱发生时段对粮食产量的影响。结果表明:1)与仅考虑水分亏缺程度的指标相比,综合考虑干旱稀遇程度的IEDI能更加有效地识别干旱年际差异,历史干旱事件、旱灾成灾面积和粮食产量验证了该指数的合理性;2)东北三省旱灾成灾面积与IEDI的相关系数均大于0.75,其中,吉林省最大,为0.88;粮食产量与IEDI的相关系数均大于0.60,其中,辽宁省最大,为0.78;3)吉林西部、辽宁西部易发生严重农业干旱,对气象干旱敏感程度高;4)当干旱发生的起始月份固定时,随干旱持续时间增加,干旱指数与产量的相关性先增强后减弱;当干旱持续时间固定时,干旱指数与产量的相关性与干旱发生的起始月份显著相关。总之,结合了干旱事件稀遇程度的指数可以有效识别农业干旱,为农业干旱监测提供了合理依据。
[Abstract]:The decrease of soil moisture will cause crop growth to be under water stress, and agricultural drought will occur seriously, which will adversely affect food security. It is of great practical significance to accurately identify and effectively monitor agricultural drought. In previous studies, drought events are generally identified according to the current water deficit, regardless of their rare occurrence characteristics. Based on evapotranspiration, an agricultural drought index, IEDI integrated evaporan inspiration index (IEDI), was constructed based on evapotranspiration. Based on this index, the evolution of agricultural drought in three provinces of Northeast China from 2000 to 2014 was analyzed. The effects of meteorological factors on agricultural drought and its occurrence period on grain yield were discussed. The results show that compared with the index considering only the degree of water deficit, IEDI, which considers the degree of drought scarcity, is more effective in identifying drought year differences and historical drought events. Drought disaster area and grain yield verify the rationality of the index. The correlation coefficient between drought disaster area and IEDI in the three Northeast provinces is greater than 0.75, in which Jilin Province is the largest, is 0.88, and the correlation coefficient between grain yield and IEDI is more than 0.60, among which, Liaoning Province is the largest, which is 0.78 ~ (3) the west of Jilin Province is prone to severe agricultural drought, and the sensitivity to meteorological drought is high (4) when the onset month of drought is fixed, the duration of drought increases with the drought. The correlation between drought index and yield was increased at first and then weakened, and when the duration of drought was fixed, the correlation between drought index and yield was significantly correlated with the beginning month of drought. In a word, the index of drought event rare can be used to identify agricultural drought effectively, which provides a reasonable basis for agricultural drought monitoring.
【作者单位】：北京师范大学水科学研究院;城市水循环与海绵城市技术北京市重点实验室;
【基金】：水利部公益性行业科研专项项目(201401036)
【分类号】：S423

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