农业干旱脆弱性影响因素与空间变化研究——基于长江中下游六省一市的实证

发布时间：2018-06-18 20:27

本文选题：干旱 + 脆弱性评估　；参考：《生态经济》2017年09期

【摘要】：以长江中下游湖北、湖南、江西、安徽、江苏、浙江六省和上海市为研究区域,运用主成分分析法分析该区农业干旱脆弱性的影响因素,并通过聚类分析的方法来反映长江中下游干旱脆弱性的空间变化。结果表明:人均耕地面积、农民工资性收入所占比例、第一产业比重、森林覆盖率、地表水资源量等经济因素是影响长江中下游六省一市干旱脆弱性的主要因素,其对干旱脆弱性的贡献率达54.4%;自然因素和社会因素的贡献率次之,分别为21%和10.8%;进一步将长江中下游六省一市根据脆弱性差异聚成三类。提升农业产业化水平、增加森林覆盖率、加强农田水利基础设施建设等可有效提升农业抗旱整体能力,同时政府的农业抗旱政策也应当做到差异化、因地制宜。
[Abstract]:Taking Hubei, Hunan, Jiangxi, Anhui, Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Shanghai as the study regions, the main component analysis method was used to analyze the influencing factors of agricultural drought vulnerability in this area. The spatial variation of drought vulnerability in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River is reflected by cluster analysis. The results show that the economic factors, such as the per capita cultivated land area, the proportion of peasants' wage income, the proportion of primary industry, the forest coverage rate and the amount of surface water resources, are the main factors that affect the drought vulnerability of six provinces and one city in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River. Its contribution rate to drought vulnerability is 54.4%, the contribution rate of natural factor and social factor is 21% and 10.8% respectively, and the six provinces and one city in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River are further divided into three types according to the vulnerability difference. Raising the level of agricultural industrialization, increasing forest coverage and strengthening the infrastructure construction of irrigation and water conservancy can effectively enhance the overall ability of agricultural drought resistance. Meanwhile, the government's agricultural drought resistance policy should be differentiated and adapted to local conditions.
【作者单位】：湖北工程学院经济与管理学院;湖北工程学院新农村发展研究院;
【基金】：教育部人文社会科学青年基金项目“农业旱灾脆弱性测度及旱灾风险管理机制设计”(14YJC630021) 国家自然科学青年基金项目“长江流域双低油菜天气指数保险契约模型研究”(71503073) 国家自然科学基金项目“双低油菜生产灰色系统全程管理研究”(71473072)
【分类号】：S423

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